Recent comments in /f/worldnews

Expensive-Document41 t1_ja6dl8y wrote

Not quite. Russia has already lost in every meaningful way. At this point all they can really do is take land.

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Russia is still fighting the Ukrainians to secure the "annexed" portions. Right now the war has clear lines between Russian control and Ukrainian control, which is why Russia hasn't gotten to the hard part. If (big if) the Russians manage to hold any of what they currently occupy then they have to occupy it in perpetuity.

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As an analogy, when the U.S. went into Iraq, the war part analogous to what is happening in Ukraine was over in months. Russia just rolled over into 1 year. The part where the U.S. lost the vast majority of it's soldiers was to unsymmetrical warfare. IEDS and partisans hiding in the general populace. If Russia can't win just the invasion then they have no idea how hard the occupation will be.

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Russia has crippled a generation of it's youth, become an international pariah with crippling sanctions, shown to be an untrustworthy source of energy and doesn't have any of it's objectives comfortably secured.

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TL;DR: Russia has already lost. Now it's just sunk-cost fallacy.

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raymmm t1_ja6brch wrote

100%? I doubt it. And people that says the oligarchs will betray him probably thinks the oligarchs are some warlords with their own private army or something. Let's be clear, within Russia, Putin has all the power. Oligarchs with money but without power doesn't mean shit else at least a few of them would have tried something significant by now. Our best bet is to hope Putin renovates his office/home and change his window since there seems to be a "people falling out of window" problem in Russia.

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BigBeerBellyMan t1_ja69zmk wrote

One of the conditions for joining NATO is that the country must have resolved any conflicts with its neighbors or other countries in accordance with international law.

So even if France, Germany, and the UK did have the power to offer NATO membership to Ukraine, they could not accept it at this current time. Even pre-2022 before the invasion they could not get accepted because they had disputed territory in the Donbass and Crimea.

So, I guess a non-NATO guarantee of military support by individual nations is probably the best way forward for Ukraine.

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