This is a 4th grade level analysis. I just sent this to the trading floor for jokes. Thanks they loved it and asked if you could do another

#Submission Vote Removed This submission was voted spam. ##Reasons

Wasn't a Solid Discussion Starter

Hi I'm new what do I do?

He's not, he gave himself away with the title.

God I love this sub.

Commercial real estate will take the markets lower - the news wheel is just catching on but I’ve been living mostly in the office sector for three years. All product types (mf, industrial, retail, etc) will suffer with the recession, but office is particularly fucked rn.

Probably correct to be short-term bull, but cracks are forming big time.

The long-term nature of office cre and their leases ensures these issues creep up slowly, but also that they don’t and can’t really go away without a serious intervention.

The media is focusing on smaller banks share of loans backed by cre, which is an issue sure, but in the end that’s not really what matters. What matters is office was overbuilt already, now you have an absurd essentially overnight disappearance of demand that hasn’t healed in three years, and as a result ANY owner with a heavy exposure to office outside the highest quality assets will have trouble covering their debt payments and even if payment isn’t an issue they’re still considering handing the keys back (because why continue to hold an asset with negative leverage).

Google search on your own and you’ll very quickly find multiple recent examples of institutional players wiping their hands clean of office product. You’re not even hearing about the smaller players doing the same, but they are there.

Unless somehow demand suddenly skyrockets and lenders can buy an owners story of a turnaround and growing rents based on that (allowing for some creativity around extensions), keys will continue to be handed back and write downs will accelerate.

[deleted]

If you really know what is going to happen in the future, then you can just trade oil futures and get rich.

But the truth is, no one knows whether oil prices will go up or down over the next 9 months. That's why there is an investor on each side of all the options.

How exactly do you expect me to pump and dump... one of the if not the highest traded security of the market?

That literally makes no sense at all.

The real rate of return on those bonds is nearly negative with inflation lol cash is king for the short term

You like to pump and dump. This is fraud. Just gotta protect this sub on this bs you post.

Every once in a while someone on this sub will google something and make a whole post about it.

Yep. Demand destruction due to price and usage declines. We are now entering a recessionary cycle that is going to run 5 years.

Time to make coin on the downside.

Yeah, but that just means he’s an A+ regard.

Taxpayers money buying the banks

James Bonds

Its crazy i really did think the banks thing would be the black swan. But damn this markets resilient as ever.

But i still believe a rally to 415-420 is an opportunity for puts

2023-03-27

frc-13.82 usd (+11.81%)

Day's Range: 13.46 - 16.38 usd

Crazy that we were in extreme fear a three weeks ago and we only dipped into the 380s on spy for a week.

I know you said the banks could be the black swan event but it seems like the backstop has prevented that so far. Unless they let a bank fail without insuring deposits past 250k, I'm not sure what will truly take this market lower.

I'm a bear at heart buy i'm hopping on the bull train short term.

Only with your gay dad

Wut? PNC is a well capitalized bank with diverse deposits.

Haha!

I never get on here, Tell me what this means and ill do what I can.

Assassins Creed Unity?

Oh its ugly as shit. If you DD and truly look into this though, its has potential. Its also being shorted hard

Reported for being gay

Positionsorban!