Recent comments in /f/wallstreetbets

VisualMod t1_j9td9tx wrote

Reply to $SQ (Block Inc) Revenue Growth -0.73%, Total Operating Expenses +55%, Stock-based Compensation +64%, Negative Adjusted OI Outlook 🤷‍♂️ by FI_investor

That's a really terrible outlook. They're expecting their share-based compensation expense to increase by 64% while their operating loss is already over half a billion dollars. And their net loss will be even higher. This company is in serious trouble and I wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole.

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VisualMod t1_j9td99u wrote

Reply to $SQ (Block Inc) Revenue Growth -0.73%, Total Operating Expenses +55%, Stock-based Compensation +64%, Negative Adjusted OI Outlook 🤷‍♂️ by FI_investor

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h_lance t1_j9tcijl wrote

Reply to comment by cryptoguy66 in I’m going to do a 100k in 100 day challenge by sneakysammy89

>If you print tomorrow, then I might take you seriously

Since OP's most likely goal is to charge money for a "method to go from $1000 to $100,000 in 30 days", and since he's likely to report only positive results, he might, in fact, earn 10,000% ROI if someone does take him seriously.

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aka0007 t1_j9tb6tn wrote

Reply to comment by Southern_Smoke8967 in Rivian Business Strategy Walkthrough - Do they have what it takes to compete against Tesla? by maliknyc

Tesla in 2017 sold 2,685 Model 3's and their FCF that year was -4.1B. In 2018 they sold 152,977 Model 3's and their FCF that year was -221M.

RIVN in 2021 sold 920 r1t's and their FCF was -4.4B... So ah-ha! You must think you are right because look at how close that FCF is... But... through Q3' 2022 with 12,278 vehicles sold their FCF was another -4.7B.

​

So to recap from Year 1 of production to Year 2 of production for the Model 3 vs the Truck/SUV Rivian makes:

Tesla 2,685 -> 152,977

Rivian 920 -> 12,278

​

FCF for those periods:

Tesla -4.1B -> -221M

Rivian -4.4B -> -4.7B

​

If you want to dig deeper into this...

In Q1' 2022 per vehicle sold, Rivian's FCF was -654K

In Q2' 2022 per vehicle sold, their FCF was -206K

In Q3' 2022 per vehicle sold, their FCF was -449K

Not sure scaling is working out here as you think.

​

You can chirp on about how Rivian is doing this and that, but the numbers here don't show it. Tesla within a year turned around a cash-burning production process... Rivian has barely scaled up and as of Q3 was still burning cash like crazy. I would not count on next week Tuesday after the close looking pretty.

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aka0007 t1_j9t9e9l wrote

Reply to comment by Cold_Acanthisitta_95 in Rivian Business Strategy Walkthrough - Do they have what it takes to compete against Tesla? by maliknyc

Exactly. Not sure why people don't get that that Tesla was operating in a different environment in 2010-2020. The Tesla model worked, arguably, to a large extent because of the lack of competition and the access to those motivated buyers who were less price conscious and more forgiving of early missteps. And even in that environment Tesla almost went bankrupt (well we also forget that battery costs were crazy high and lack of any supply chain meant substantial upfront costs).

Then Tesla also has Elon Musk, but if I mention that I will get called out for being part of the cult...

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swissiws t1_j9t25da wrote

Reply to comment by Double-hokuto in Rivian Business Strategy Walkthrough - Do they have what it takes to compete against Tesla? by maliknyc

>Far better build quality than any recent Tesla

There are plenty of videos of around of recent Tesla cars that praise their build quality. Things have changed and Tesla is the fastest automaker in changing their products. Non for the better all the time, but as time passes the product is better than it was earlier. Each iteration can take less than a month, others take longer. The panel gaps or other problems that arose during 2018 production hell are no longer here. In facts, chinese Teslas never had quality issues. It has always been a Freemont problem

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