Recent comments in /f/wallstreetbets

EEazy89 t1_j9i8n6b wrote

Reply to comment by Fun4life90 in UP 60% on my Spy Puts today ! by cezapiza

At best he may get back like $2000-$3000. I agree with you to an extend though. He should probably hold but sell very soon. Either Friday or next week. Depending on how the rest of this week looks

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Sopdope69 t1_j9i74rt wrote

Reply to comment by pw7090 in UP 60% on my Spy Puts today ! by cezapiza

Yeah if he averaged in every day… at this point he’s still holding them so may as well throw a grand at it. It’s like buying odds on the coral table lol… in this case it’s a shit bet but it would still be a better bet than if he doesn’t do it.

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Moist_Lunch_5075 t1_j9i6vwz wrote

Reply to comment by DesmondMilesDant in Wall Street Newsletter S02E07 : Why is there such a disconnect b/w Stock and Bond market? by DesmondMilesDant

And for the record, I really do appreciate the exchange, your drive to improve, and the thought you put into all of this.

I've spent a lot of time studying trading structures in both directions, so if you want to talk about how to build risk-defined positions, I'm glad to share what I know.

But I also want to say that my goal wasn't to get you to acquiesce to me. It's not about who knows more, it's about sharing ideas and exchanging thoughts, and I think this exchange has been wonderful for that.

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Good luck to you, too, and I hope you also have a great trading week!

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Moist_Lunch_5075 t1_j9i5mc9 wrote

Reply to comment by DesmondMilesDant in Wall Street Newsletter S02E07 : Why is there such a disconnect b/w Stock and Bond market? by DesmondMilesDant

To be absolutely clear, I don't think you were making anything up.

I've been doing macroeconomics for well over 20 years and the reality is that this stuff is very hard to understand, and even the best of us can only scratch at the surface because we're talking about the entire, irrational history of human individual and collective interaction.

That means that it's very easy to let limited information and biases influence our positions.

I'm well aware that you've been making these predictions because I've been reading your posts. They're not bad... they're decent. That's why I'm engaging. I'd say in the solid +20% of interesting posts on here.

So I'm not trying to rob you of being right, but rather suggesting that there's a reason why sometimes predictions don't go as expected.

And that happens to all of us. The market has a way of making us all look like fools. To be clear here, I'm not saying you or I are fools, just that the market proves us all wrong.

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It's easy to predict the market will go down while it's going down. In November of 2021, while my bias was still largely bullish for 2022, I was engaging with people on here saying I could see the market correcting 20% in 2022.

I thought that would happen in the first half and we'd be up a bit for the 2nd half. I thought the inflationary whipsaw would slow down sooner, and I think without Ukraine I would have been mostly right. At the time, everyone was screaming "crash!" and I was saying "I think it'll be an orderly correction."

My predictions then were... mostly right overall. 20% was correct, more or less. That it wasn't a crash but rather a correction was correct. That inflation pulled back on both the MoM and YoY comp was correct.

I knew that the math on inflation would bring the comp down. I also knew that a revision of relative valuations with a de-leveraging wouldn't crash the market like people suggested. I knew that said de-leveraging wouldn't cause banks to implode.

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So it wasn't random for me, either, but it's just impossible to get every bit of understanding right and you can't see the future.

While the times we were right mattered, they don't eliminate the impact of the times we were wrong. I could have run away from those things, but I didn't... I did research, I observed patterns, I did a ton of chart work to learn to trend things I couldn't see. A lot of that came out to some really darn good predictions last year myself that predicted SPY movement in many cases down to the dollar. With good, solid technicals, you can do that... but it didn't work every time, and that's OK.

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It's OK to get something wrong, that's how we learn. And all of those people who you listed off? I've seen some of these videos and they would ALL say that learning from our mistakes and our biases and expanding our view is the superior outcome.

I had a chart last year that said that SPY 320 was on the table... then the bullish reversal trend change happened. So I get that 3200 wasn't random. I saw it in the chart in Q3 last year. So I'm definitely not saying you made anything up, just that there are probably things you're missing, like all of us.

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>So whenever i say Q1 disaster its just because i am biased. I cannot change my stance because that would be a huge disrespect to all of the people who have faithfully watched this series since last yr. So if i am wrong so i be wrong but i will try everything in my power to atleast make an attempt for lower lows in Q1 itself. No matter how bad the odds are.

There's a difference between having a conviction and holding onto a bad play.

I would say your position right now is still a conviction, but this isn't a team sport. You don't generate the crash by selling your theory of it, and you can't will it into existence. Crashes mostly happen because the underlying mechanics of the market fall apart.

Sometimes those mechanics are economic, but usually they influence the financial system. That was true in the 10s, 30s, in the 40s/50s... in the 70s and 80s, in the 2000 and 2008 crash... in the end, they all have the unifying factor of the bottom falling out of the liquidity system.

Recessions played a part in those crashes, but not all recessions resulted in liquidity crises.

After lots of work on trending the market, I strongly believe in planning both sides of the trade.... so I say continue planning for your crash and what you would do, but also plan on what happens if you're wrong. How do you avoid loss if you're wrong? How do you profit on the other side?

I have skin in that game. Last year, in Q3, I rode end of the year SPY 330 puts thinking 320 was on the table, hoping for a big payout. I kept dumping money into the position because I was sure we were on the pattern for another leg down, and it really looked like it a couple of times... but that money just wasted away because it doesn't always work the way that we think.

I stuck to the bad play, and lost money as a result. Don't stick to a bad play if you can avoid it. And you don't owe your fans blind conviction in these plays... again, it's not a team sport. The team is "me" and the game is "gains."

What you owe your fans is honesty, sincerity, and thoughtfulness.

And I honestly think you do that. I think what you just said takes a lot of guts and integrity. I get it. I understand the urge to hold onto the idea.

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I just hope I've brought you to think about some things as possibly being more complex than maybe you were considering, or even just brought you to think of something a little differently. In fact, I hope we both did that for each other. You did it for me... and if this all made us think and reassess, then it's all been worth it.

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DisAccount4SRStuff t1_j9hyr2t wrote

Reply to comment by YouAreStoopud in Many Americans need Wendy’s dumpster to afford student loan payments without Biden's forgiveness plan: Survey by TheFleshGordon

The cost of the degree and difficulty of the degree compare to other job prospects makes it suck. I have friends that went into trades, spent less on thier degree, and make more than me. Also people with similar undergraduates make about the same as I do with not nearly as much effort and the classes are not as rigorous, like finance and HR. Undergrad engineering is not the career path it use to be. Plus, you also get little respect, you're easily replaceable and are expected to work really long hours. It's not a good prospect comparatively any more in my opinion since other jobs are easier to do, easier to obtain, and pay the same.

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