> The agreement won't slow them much.

It absolutely will. They've been trying since 2013 to develop a cutting-edge indigenous semiconductor industry (the "Big Fund"), under fewer constraints, and haven't succeeded at anything but burning a lot of cash, by focusing on many of the "wrong" things (less fundamental science, chemical supply chain, and manufacturing equipment, more spent on value-add at far later stages of the manufacturing process, which has not helped them progress toward become self-reliant, but further deepened their reliance on the same players from Japan, Netherlands, the US, etc). This basically comes down to the fact that Chinese firms are extremely good at figuring out how to position themselves to take advantage of well-funded political priorities, like semiconductors were, and less good at.. uh.. doing the thing they say they're going to do. Many, many words have written about this subject, especially after the Gao Songtao was "disappeared" in a CCDI crackdown in 2021, and the government's financial commitment to the fund began wavering in January.

More constraints will certainly slow them down further, which is why the US did this. Frankly, if the US wanted to hurt them even more in this area, they absolutely could, and there have been numerous good suggestions for how they could severely restrict their access to even 5nm, 7nm and 14nm processes. I suspect the reason they haven't is more down to the fact that the US doesn't want to make this an "existential" issue for China, at least at this point.

My point is, it's not like theses sanctions flipped a switch, and now they'll start trying industrial espionage, or start "really for srs" trying to stop importing 90% of the value-add of their semiconductors. They've been stealing shit forever, it doesn't really put a dent in the fact that they just don't have the domestic expertise necessary to do this, or the economic or political environment to make it an achievable goal for them, even if the government makes it reeeeeally super clear to everyone that it is.

It's the same with lots of complex, high-tolerance electronics. If the US government woke up tomorrow and seriously set about the business of preventing China from accessing avionics, I doubt China would be able to build a modern airplane by themselves.

Agreed. It's a stupid opinion but they did ask for what would possibly cause it to slow down and, of they were right, this would slow it down.

The down votes are probably for saying it's true rather than saying it's a method by which a show down could happen.

I think about this all the time. My bet is the solar flare.

Lack of quality information. There's a max of 12 trillion high quality token for LLMs to learn from. After that, the returns could diminish (maybe 10% new quality info is added per year). Right now, largest models are trained on 1T tokens..

it will not put them 10 years behind. 10 years old chips are like 22nm. SMIC is shipping 7nm chips, and they've been making 14nm for years.

Let me be me.

>We are all getting whiplash from the breakneck speed of AI development and adoption/integration.

I'm not, and I think your prone. ;)

> A lot of things here will get shelved because they’re either not able to get the price down or it malfunctions too often and they can’t fix it.

You just described about 99% of all AI products. They all malfunction. All of them. "Errare humanum est", but for now "errare machinale est".

They don't have to use the most advanced chips.

Literally why are you raging?

Back-propagation is self-modifying code. There is also meta-back-propagation for meta-learning, which is learning to modify a neural network to solve novel tasks.

At a higher level, language models trained on code can cultivate a population of models with evolutionary techniques.

Evolution through Large Models

The more advanced these chips get, the harder to make. So advancement in capability amplifies the cost.

AI needs the highest grade of chips that can only be produced in Taiwan, other countries can produce lower grades.

Here is an interesting article addressing fixing LLM issues, including hallucinations.

https://towardsdatascience.com/overcoming-the-limitations-of-large-language-models-9d4e92ad9823

No you're responding to me. But back to spamming now Mr Spammer.

lol you’re responding to my posts. I don’t know what I did to get your fixation though.

What's mad is how can it get any quicker? I can't keep up

What large language model are self driving cars using?

That's happening now. https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/03/rising-scams-use-ai-to-mimic-voices-of-loved-ones-in-financial-distress/

Industrial espionage is a thing you know. The agreement won't slow them much.

I enjoy your fixation.

Intentional slow down. In a few years, when unemployement raises because automation, laws will need to be drafted so only certain percentages can be automated... Until the economic models are updated I don't think there is a way around that.

The block button is available, unless you struggle with that too.

No, and I never said that. It was his opinion that LLM's will stall out and we'll have another AI winter, not mine. I don't see the issue here.

I think we have plenty of other types of models that will find success, LLM's seem to only be one piece of the puzzle.

Sure but probably wouldn't be as many as if they had an actual deal