Right? Is it not the job of a comment to...ya know...comment on the idea, whether you deem it wrong or right in the context. Upvoting and downvoting should be about filtering out lack of contributing content.

The things that can slow it down are already in motion but they can only push it down so far.

(1) A recession causing a drain on the companies trying to build AI. A recession is here.

(2) A war or other critical event causing interest rates to go high, leading to defaults in startups and even established companies. Interest rate will go all the way to 6% this year.

(3) Hardware/cost limits being hit. Better hardware will ofcourse be available soon but it's harder now to just scale by pumping money. It's already reaching hundreds of millions of dollars, more is only possible by governments or high return rate on these AI models.

(4) Isolation of a large country like China from chip manufacturing and procuring for AI.

Other things that could happen

(*) GPT-4 being a bust and thereby eroding confidence.

(*) OpenAI and other companies fail to monetize.

(*) Scaling may have reached it's limits. Newer architectures take time.

But even with all this, it can only slow it down by 5-10 years. We will still likely have AGI in 2030s.

There are agreements and there are shady markets. If China wants to get their hands on these chips, they likely will.

Analogy is your passion.

Tsmc is building next generation chip fabs in SK, Japan and US so that'd really only slow it down by a couple years

Agreed. You never rely on one tech, same as the Internet hasn't

I mean I up voted him even though I disagreed, but yeah most people just downvote whatever they disagree with not necessarily what promotes discussion.

We are nearing self improving code IMO.

Once we get past that, we have crossed the threshold.

Seeing the large variance in the hardware cost/performance of current models, Id think the progression margin for software optimization alone is huge.

I believe we already have the hardware required for one ASI.

Things will soon accelerate, the box has been opened already :-)

>you get downvoted for stating your opinion lol.
>
>To be clear I don't even really agree with your opinion

yea that pretty much summarizes how reddit voting works.

To play devil's advocate, I think it would be extremely foolish to rely on LLM's to take us all the way.

That explains why politics has had an AI-Generated vibe for the last 50 years.

ASML a Dutch company that provides chip making equipment. They are the leading one. they agreed with the USA not to sell equipment to China etc.. this will put these countries 10 years behind in development of super tiny chips.

Man this sub can be something else sometimes. The thread is literally asking for what people think could slow things down and you get downvoted for stating your opinion lol. People need to lay off the hopium a little bit.

To be clear I don't even really agree with your opinion (I think LLM's could possibly see a slowing of improvement soon, but think they will be quickly replaced). Regardless, we should want dissenting opinions, especially when we're asking for them.

The more direct comparison is when the perceptron was invented and everyone said it’s just a couple years of tuning it until we get AGI. That was in the 1960s.

We are at narrow AI right now, this is only the beginning as AGI is being developed.

Just give it an antipsychotic

We still haven’t been able to get through the bottleneck that is R&D and making products available to the masses once proof of concept is established. I see a lot of posts on here that involve proof of concept for great products. But they still have to test the products to make sure they don’t malfunction over a period of time. The products also have to be at a price to where the average person can afford them. A lot of things here will get shelved because they’re either not able to get the price down or it malfunctions too often and they can’t fix it.

I think it’ll be a long time before we can accelerate/refine that part of the production process.

I'm no expert but the hallucination problem seems pretty difficult

And what limitations do you see with LLMs that wouldn’t be “solved” as time goes on?

Yeah, the same thing happened with that internet thing that everyone was banging on about in the late 90s. I wonder what happened to that...

China invading Taiwan, causing loss in chip production (amongst other ill effects)

I foresee a dead end in LLMs. Their core limitations are plainly visible, if one takes of their hype glasses. Once the spark of hope that is the LLMs wink out of existence we shall once again be back in a hopeless AI darkness. Maybe the next generation after us will be luckier.

According to history, this will only accelerate (towards extinction, I think).

To answer your question, the only thing that would slow down AI research is a large scale, civilization-affecting issue. Massive meteor strike. Deadly plague. Nuclear war. CME (coronal mass ejection) that takes us back to the 1800s.

[removed]

They are 100% an attractive nuisance which is why they stopped marketing them for the most part, years ago.