I think the best way to interpret this is to always ask whether there is something fundamentally limiting or constrained about a given issue, because if not, the broader assertion is that when the relative cost of energy and computation go towards zero, anything that is amenable to solution via application of those factors becomes on a long enough time scale just an engineering problem. A simple matter of engineering as they say.

Eg the question of being on or off grid presupposes that there is a grid in the sense we mean it today and more importantly that it is a fundamental determinant of what is plausible.

The thrust of this idea about robot built houses is undoubtedly not just that grid connection will be a trivial and well solved problem, but that it may be a red herring because it may not be necessary in the sense it is today.

With enough energy, you can pull water out of the air; and with the right energy and tech you can dispense with gray water and wastewater.

That's probably the far down the line extreme but the theory is the same for incremental improvements.

There is a world in which the limits we have are the limits of physics.

I don't expect to see it and don't have a great deal of faith anyone will, given current obstacles, but I think it's a lot less far fetched and a lot more plausible than we would have thought conceivable only a couple decades ago.

Yes but taking care of the day to day needs of a community meant work: blacksmithing, farming, carpentry, architecture etc etc. Those trades became specialised, not in the last few decades, but literally thousands of years ago.

So you see, I believe ChatGPT has nearly 0% chance of being conscious.

Now this...

What is Gothub Copilot?

Sure, but my point is that humans existed and got on just fine when we were just living in small communities and taking care of our day to day needs. The rest came later.

I think if we had the right resources, this would make a hell of a research paper and conference talk.

His prediction that if there is staggering change in a short period of time, it will push the average Joe to be anti-AI is very plausible.

>careers are a modern invention

Learning and practicing a trade is as old as human civilization.

So we all just, die I guess? Then who do they sell to

It doesn't necessarily have to be live action. Using 3D models, draft sketches or even stop motion you could create whatever "base" necessary for the AI to build upon to make its final product. Lets say for example that rather than a big company im an indie artist, i might just hop on a video game like second life or something, act out and record the stuff i want, then ask it to overlay a different "actor" doing the stuff on top in a different art style.

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All it really takes is one investor to look at that corridor digital video and think "NEW TECHNOLOGY SILICON VALLEY DISRUPTION MONEY" and we will see those companies begin arising. Even before one produces anything, competitors will arise simply because they saw some other investor do it.

For many years 3D artists attempted to replicate anime style (and other 2d animation styles) using 3D models. Recently, they began having some success (dragon ball fighterz particularly), but for a very long time their attempts lacked many of those small touches you are talking about, but they were released anyway. I suspect we will simply see a volume of AI made releases despite certain "shortcuts" commonly used in anime that are directly responsible for its style not being replicated.

Also in the 3D animation that tries to replicate anime they always dial down the framerate so it looks choppy and its horrible. Like of all the things to replicate why would you want to replicate the framerate?

#X

No, he did not.

Corridor Crew FTW

Love these guys they are amazing at what they do. So much entertaining and witty!

Listening to Neel Nanda talk about how models form structures to solve common problems presenting in training, no wonder they are able to pick up on patterns better than humans, that's what they are designed for.

and I believe that training models with no intention of running them purely to see what if any hidden underlying structures humanity has collectively missed is called something like 'microscope AI '

>The new jobs would probably be the composition, music, directing, and such.

By the time people have made the shift, AI will take that over as well.

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>We really need UBI already, because while legislation is slow AI is not.

Indeed. The problem is that there is a much cheaper alternative to UBI, which is to reduce costs, mostly by firing your employees. If a country is a company, then its citizens are its employees, if you catch my drift.

It's not just platform access like Bing and chatGPT. You can download the model itself and run it offline on your device.

Sure! Why not?

That's where new players can come in and shake up the market. This fx crew could start their own business, create anime and sell it to Netflix. But they'll only have a window of a few months at best.

It's something I've said for a long time: the next Google or Apple or Amazon will come into existence over a very short time, months or weeks or days, and will devalue a lot of existing top companies. AGI will instantly bankrupt Google for one thing, because it's a direct competitor.

Well there is a solution to this. Instead of assuming the AI can figure out how to repair any arbitrary house (though it might actually be doable), if houses were factory built, the robots/AI can be much more limited.

Basically, make the whole house/office building out of flat panels and other objects designed to fit into the dimensions of a max size load truck and easy to assemble on site. Robot trucks haul the pieces to the job site, robot cranes lift them into place, robots probably ride the piece up (no OSHA standards for them!) and use their arms to pull it into alignment and bolt/weld into place.

So the solution would be to basically take a 100 year old house and replace it with a brand new house where it's been made to look externally like the same house.

The new stuff would be robot repairable, with everything behind panels that robots can easily remove and subdivided into modules that can be easily removed and replaced.

It's important if it pays your bills. If enough white collar workers get laid off it could be socially and politically disruptive.

A few years ago I was out walking in the rain with my then 3-year old daughter.

Suddenly I saw her start skip down the road. Curiosly I asked her what she was doing. "I don’t want to step on the worms, it might hurt them!"

I fail to understand how a superintelligence can not figure out something that my 3 year old can understand with ease.

Diffusion has already created infinite, high quality content. But because the market is already saturated, no one cares.

But the anime market is tiny, as someone else pointed out it has been on life support since 2008. But with this technology you could have infinite amounts of high quality anime.

It's not so much the growth of technology but of value production here that amounts to the singularity, but is the difference relevant to the average consumer?

If say the human in customer support is replaced with an AI and I can't tell from the quality or the cost, then that makes no difference to me, even if it is technically the singularity. But if the quality goes up and cost goes down to me the consumer as a consequence, then yes that is an infinite cycle of evolutionary improvement, and thus the singularity becomes reality to me.