Probably money is the most important thing. $1B given by MS to OpenAI in 2019 became GPT-3.

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So if he lacked toes before, does this mean he grew toes?

It's not a linear change, it's an exponential. I am already shocked at how well large language models are doing. I will be shocked if it's 10 years. OpenAI has thrown an army of coders at the problem since the upside for Microsoft is pretty big to automate coding.

Here is an article: https://www.semafor.com/article/01/27/2023/openai-has-hired-an-army-of-contractors-to-make-basic-coding-obsolete

The path leading to the optimum outcome is usually really hard to guess in advance, but seems easy in retrospective.

Happened to Google, which surely must be regretting being so open about transformers and attention right now.

No interest in that and I don't stack shelves.

I want to save enough money or whatever goes as store of value to check out forever. Well, without dying or course.

A FIRE trajectory at the lowest cost with maxed out gain. 4% return rule and all. Full automated basic life support while I am off dreaming and communicating in my own reality.

I don't care if my body rots in a dorm taken care of by machines contracted to attend my needs forever, as long as my mind is at a place of my own design.

Here is the issue: when every single person on planet earth can be a game developer it's like saying everyone can have their own podcast on Youtube. That increases the competition from a few highly skilled people (programmers) to everyone on the planet Earth (or a really high percentage of people).

The market for people willing to play your game will be about the same, but the odds of you ever making a game that will generate you any money will be like winning the lotto.

The exceptionally creative (or maybe lucky) will be able to make a living, but most people will make nothing or so little that it doesn't matter (similar to creating content on YouTube).

This is kind of a shocking thought to me. I see a lot of beauty in the world and I think maybe you could too. I have zero desire to spend all my time in a virtual world. I would totally spend time in the spiritual world though if I could - ethereal planes of consciousness and such. But definitely not a machine controlled virtual reality!

You ever heard of AlphaStar?

i don't think enshitification necessarily applies to ai. it isn't something that will be completely centralized and under the purview of a few companies forever, eventually it will be completely decentralized and the most powerful AIs may not be "controllable" in the traditional sense at all.

No, it's not about flashiness. Those ML apps you are talking about were specialised projects, each one developed independently. LLMs on the other hand are generalist. They can do thousands of known tasks and countless more, including combinations of tasks.

Instead of taking one year or more to provide a proof of concept, you can do that in a week. Instead of painstakingly labelling tens of thousands of examples, you just prompt with 4 examples. The entry barrier is so low now for many applications that anyone with programming experience can do it.

For vision, the CLIP model gives us a way to make classifiers without any samples, and the diffusion models allow us to generate any image. All without retraining, without large scale labelling.

This is cool to know it is possible to run things on a single GPU, but kind of useless since it is being locked down and not open sourced to the public. Really hope a company comes out that releases something just as good as CHATGPT, is open sourced and can be trained by individual users so we can create models that are focused on certain fields and uses.

If you can edit memories in matrix-style you'll be able to edit out the bio breaks and full time job you have at the side of your matrix existence, you can run it as an escapist pasttime next to your shelf stacking job.

No need for ICU-like infrastructure because that's really a shitload of work, human bodies are made to move around.

In many ways it's been the same since 2010. We could talk, take photos, load web pages, use maps, set alarms and play games back then too, we even had Uber and AirBnb. Now the screens are a bit larger and the experience more polished.

I was expecting something more revolutionary - the phone is a pack of sensors, it has sight, hearing, touch, orientation, radio and many other sensors in the same package. But the amazing new applications didn't appear, except Pokemon Go?

Even if you can synthesize the materials on site, you really wouldn't need to. You can just have an self driving truck, automatically dispatched at the appropriate time from a completely autonomous facility with exactly what you need, directly to the site 24 hours a day.

Not even people working in the field have a good idea about 3 years ahead. Ten or twenty years ahead is just sci-fi.

I tink AI can only be usefull when capitalism is eradicated for good. AI can't solve problems humans make up for the purpose of exploitation.

For example it wouldn't matter that AI might produce Insulin for 1$ a unit, as it is already cheap in production and expensive to buy due to capitalism.

The same is true for the housing market. AI could construct a building at 20% cost, but the issue is not the building, it is zoning laws. Homeowners blocking construction to keep equity high.

Humans create scarcity to exploit other humans, that is nothing that AI can fix. The eradication of capitalism would lay the foundation of a post scarcity society though.

"maximize lifespan and quality of life for all human kind and avoid their pain"

How about while maximizing as much human life, and minimizing as much suffering as possible. And don’t try the dictator ship idea we already thought of that. Oh. And maximizing quality.

Probably having to verify AI takes 50% of the time do do it manually, so the relative advantage is smaller.

But another advantage of teaming human+AI is that AI can be calibrated and ensure a baseline of quality. Humans might have higher variance, have a bad day, be tired, inattentive. So it is useful to increase consistency, not just volume.

So, a dictatorship with enforced procreation and carefully controlled lifestyles designed to maximize longevity plus minimal quality of life to reduce impact on environment?

> Humans are surprisingly adaptable, things that would have blown my mind even 5 years ago I take for granted now.

No way automation can keep up, we'll take everything for granted and still have to work to bring it to the next level.

I actually feel like this is a result of unchecked capitalism. That doesn’t necessarily mean we need something besides capitalism either. I personally believe in a capitalist economy that has appropriate regulation to help protect workers, animals, and the environment.

I think we need to get the lobbyists out of politics, elect people who actually have the voters’ welfare and rights in mind when they pass laws to regulate that economy.

Etc etc. just because we haven’t gotten it right yet doesn’t mean we can’t!

I would call it a condition

Lactose intolerance isn't a gut bacteria issue