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You make some good points, I agree with most..

However, I think most jobs will be obsolete by the time AGI actually gets created. That's the biggest hurdle i have with the points you made.

You're saying that using chemical weapons against civilians in colonies is based?

The control problem is still an issue. Compute cost decrease by 1000x a decade so, while something like GPT4 may be extremely expensive now, superhuman ASI could be ubiquitous this century, and the first ASI for the company that can afford it, could be reached within the next few decades.

The fact is that it would still be a machine, and so any values judgement it makes will be in consideration of designed function. Let's say its function is to identify minds, determine what those minds value, and then satisfy those values, the only factor that is likely to weight its decisions are how easily a particular mind's values are satisfied. And if it's a maximizer, then even that isn't likely to weight its decisions too much since it would still eventually have to get to the harder values.

Probably the mean user will get some kind of gerenal Siri, not the Skynet.

No. I have zero interest in losing individuality.

Oh yeah, I thought you were referring to the RL one. I didn’t think it was that important.

This one:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U93bUQ1roiw

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Oh you mean the Minecraft model? Yeah I forgot about that one. That’s pretty huge too.

Adaptive Agent

DeepMind AI. Solves new tasks it hasn't seen before in a virtual environment.

I have no idea. I'm not saying "if bad people get it we're for sure screwed" just that if we do end up screwed it will be most likely because of bad or misguided people, rather than some inclination to destroy humanity on the AI's part.

Imagine a psychopath that's millions of orders of magnitude smarter than the smartest Human.

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Aubrey De Grey said LEV could be reached by 2036 with a 50% chance.

Aubrey is probably the most trustworthy guy when it comes to anti age research.

He doesn't sell out or lie about his test results and seems to want the best for humanity. So I trust his prediction.

Yes, cancer will still be a problem, but nanotechnology might solve this down the road.

Though most of our problems could be fixed soon if agi/asi gets made, we will discover new things quicker and quicker.

Jumped the gun there at the end chatty

Already have. If you are on Reddit, you have too. The question is only will you keep accepting upgrades to UI and bandwidth. For the vast majority of people, the answer will be yes. The hold outs will be luddites. Like trying to compete in todays world without a smart phone or electricity, etc

We are already a part of a hive mind we just don’t know it

If ASI was released to everyone tomorrow, then malicious and good actors would have ASI.

What do you predict the outcome would be?

That relates to the ego, you think that would have an influence? Being connected would create greater understanding

Well, AI will be able to do that, no? But first, we need to figure out cancer and other diseases, as well as poverty, wars, fundamentalism, idiocy, and all kinds of stuff. I suppose all that falls under the same umbrella.

How did you get to that number?

but being connected is not always a good thing. What will happen to the ones we don't like?

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I miss the old android office logo :(