Recent comments in /f/singularity

firem1ndr t1_j65dn53 wrote

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CellistDouble3772 t1_j65bofh wrote

I agree that the 2008 crisis was exacerbated by deregulation. But that wasn't the cause. The cause was bad government policy that allowed people to get loans that they couldn't afford.

And I don't disagree that people are suffering. It sucks. But it's because the government has acted irresponsibly and frankly, stupid, on many levels. And enacting prices controls as a way to band aid over their own mistakes will create short term relief. So maybe that is the way to go. But don't think for a second that there won't be consequences down the line.

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ArgentStonecutter t1_j656714 wrote

AGI is an artificial general intelligence. It's an intelligence capable of acting as a general agent in the world. That doesn't imply that it's smarter than a human, or capable of unlimited self improvement, or answering any question or solving any problem. An AGI could be no smarter than a dog, but if it's competent as a dog that would be a huge breakthrough.

A system capable of designing a cheap fusion reactor doesn't need general intelligence, it could be an idiot savant or even not recognizably an intelligence at all. From the point of view of a business, it should be an oracle, simply answering questions, with no agency at all. General intelligence is likely to be a problem to be avoided as long as possible, you don't want to depend on your software "liking" you.

Vinge's original paper talked about a self-improving AGI but people seem to have latched on to the AGI part and ignored the self-improving part. He was talking about one that could update its fundamental design or design successively more capable successors.

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grahag t1_j653zmd wrote

> Case in point, the 2008 financial crisis was caused because for decades the government incentivesd irresponsible behavior from banks. Well intentioned or not, it pretty much destroyed the world's economy.

This was due to corruption and lax regulations. The financial sector was instrumental in stripping regulations that would have prevented the 2008 financial crisis.

>If you put price ceilings on things, you're just going to have people stop building houses, stop producing gas and groceries.

If there is an actual shortage on goods or services, this is the case. When that shortage is artificial, it's a manufactured crisis designed to manipulate prices.

Consider the housing "crisis" right now. There are companies that have algorithms designed to buy up swaths of available homes JUST to jack up the prices. Those homes are then turned around and put up for enormous prices OR rented out at huge prices. I've had offers on my house for 6 times what I paid for it and a number of my neighbors have taken those offers leaving the houses empty.

OPEC regularly manipulates the prices of oil by cutting back on production in the middle of an energy crisis. More refineries are sitting idle or shuttering completely, not because oil is scarce in the world, but because they aren't being shipped oil to refine.

Frankly, I'd rather err on the side of working against profiteering and FOR consumers rather than for the poor conglomerates who will make less profit than the previous quarter. Assuming that manufacturers will stop producing goods because we reduce their profits seems a weird argument. What will they do? Do you have significant examples of that thinking? I've seen more mom and pop shops closed down because they couldn't compete with the big boys, who then ended up raising prices once their competetiton was gone, rather than a company stop producing or selling goods because their profits were affected negatively.

>For example, when 3d printing houses becomes the norm and companies can print entire neighborhoods of houses for a fraction of the cost in a fraction of the time, prices will naturally drop. And then lab grown beef and vertical farming will reduce the amount of farmland needed and therefore land prices will decrease. Creating price ceilings on things will only retard the development of these things.

I'm not sure if you've been paying attention but land prices aren't decreasing at all. I've known people that have held onto land for decades only to see the offers keep coming in for higher and higher prices. My uncle's hovel in Redwood City, just sold for 1.2 million. 10th of an acre in a seedy neighborhood. They tore the house down and the developer is just sitting on the property.

These are all GREAT examples of predator capitalism and the corruption that it fosters and WHY price controls are required. There are plenty of empty homes out there. There's plenty of oil in the ground, and there's plenty of crops to be planted and picked. Prices don't have to be this high, and while it doesn't really affect me, because I can afford it, I see that many people I know are having a hard time.

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muchcharles t1_j652n0u wrote

You should probably mention Microsoft's margin on those cloud credits. Their $10b investment didn't cost them $10b. Their return is capped at much more than 10X, seemingly using Azure cloud credits as a way of working around OpenAI's maximum profit corporate bylaws.

And if OpenAI nets enough profit for a future multi trillion dollar valuation, what is OpenAI's margin? The non margin part will partly (mostly?) be cloud bills with Azure exceeding the $10billion credits by a lot. Part of the investment was Azure exclusivity. If they become Azure's #1 customer, MS can set the pricing to whatever they want to claw back more as long as they drop their other customers (assuming this is an AGI scenario).

Basically OpenAI's profit cap is laundered and bypassed into MS cloud bills and MS is the defacto owner of OpenAI through that laundering system if OpenAI becomes huge but needs lots of compute.

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