You’re right it’s definitely an assumption but if you’re the first to reach AGI, I could see there being insane benefits until things are commoditized.

For instance, imagine having an financial/investment analyst that’s 100-1000x more capable than the average human. Connecting patterns in the data that we just aren’t capable of seeing. My brother-in-law works as a data analyst for a PE fund that also does some public investing, and gathering and synthesizing that data is what informs their investment decisions for quarterly earnings reports. I imagine that a competent AGI could have a significant leg up in the accuracy of these long/short calls and that’s just one small example I just thought of

Edit: I realize that may not translate directly to what Microsoft is doing, but if their software suite is enhanced by AGI before any other company’s has, then at the very least they will have vastly superior products which would translate to profitability

Sometimes it is hard to tell thru text.

That will literally never happen. Again you might as well be a Christian talking about how great Heaven is gonna be in terms of how much this relates to reality.

Unless you’re just a plain ol’ psychopath. In which case being cruel is just for funs

Ive heard that chatGPT is burning $3m a day on compute time. Part of the $1b investment that Microsoft made before was the agreement that they would use their data centers exclusively.

Basically the $10b will be the same thing, OpenAI paying it all back to MS.

All I’m saying is that going from AGI to singularity will not take very long.

Depends on the specific circumstances, but probably. I'd rather start my own though :D

Ok so when do you think this shit will happen?

20 years? 50 years? 500 years? Never?

I’m basing my analysis on exponential growth of technologies. I’m not exactly extremely knowledgeable on the AI field nor do I have any credentials but then again neither do you probably.

So please answer my question. When do you think the Singularity will happen?

If you don’t have an answer then kick rocks.

It could, but why would it, when it could just kill you and have done with it?

Left wing opposition to AI is massive and way more vocal than right wing. AI feels more like a centrist movement.

Not always true either.

I agree entirely.

Predatory capitalism though incentivizes artificial scarcity to raise prices.

This is why regulation is a requirement.

I just mean "how do I make my money back and pay back the investors".

If we want a democratized AI we vote and get the government to pay for the compute and services of all those rockstars. The compute costs (which will likely soar into the sky, later systems this decade will probably burn billions in compute just to train) mean this isn't supportable by an open source model.

Deploying standard anti-mind-virus.

Roko's Basilisk's threat is null because there's no reason for the Basilisk to follow through with it. If it doesn't exist, it can't do anything. If it does exist, it doesn't need to incentivize its own creation, and can get on with whatever it was going to do anyway. And if you are an AGI developer, you have no need to deliberately configure your AGI to resurrect people and torture them – an AGI that doesn't do that is no less eligible for the title of Singleton.

I’m curious what company if you are able to share

To me it's an AI that is goal seeking and self improving.

It should have a continuous stream of thoughts and not just answer requests

There are many ways to exploit it. The question is... Are we just gonna let that happen? Or are we going to demand that AGI is democratized? The history of the world so far is unfortunately not on our side. The means of production have always belonged to the rich. AGI will be the ultimate "means of production" if you wanna call it that. Will the rich get richer or will AGI solve inequality too?

Find out on the next episode of "capitalism vs AI"

Document / knowledge management.

Don’t wanna be rude but you kinda don’t know what you’re talking about. In one breath you’re saying 2050, in another breath you say that AGI will be accomplished by 2030. What makes you think it would take 20 years to go from AGI to singularity?

I have a better proposal to exploit this.

Build an AGI system smart enough to do the work of a "think tank" (your example). Have it do lots of demo work and prove it's measurably better than the human competition.

Sell the service. Why would you sell the actual AGI architecture/weights or hardware? Sell the milk not the cow lol.

AI/AGIs will probably always be 'rented' except for open source ones that you can 'own' by downloading.

Thought so too, it’s not based on any real life expertise or scientific predictions

Apart of what makes life interesting is the struggle. What makes us seek meaning is the inherent lack of it. To be omniscient would be amazing, but once we know everything there is to know, create everything there is to create, etc… Then what?

I'm less anti-Borg than I am pro-Human.

Undecided. It just depends on who I’ll be when the opportunity arises. Also, I’d need to understand all the pros and cons. While opening my third and fourth eye in a super-intelligent hive mind sounds more liberating than ever, there’s something to be said about loneliness and content in the silence. Beauty can be found in darkness itself, just as ignorance may be bliss.

>I agree in AI models becoming commodities over time as has been seen with Stable Diffusion essentially disrupting the entire business model of paid image generation like Dall-E and Midjourney.

Ehhhhhhhhhh

So the basic technology to make an ok model, yes. But it's quite possible that 'machine learning rockstars', especially if they get recursive self improvement to work, will be able to make models that have a 'moat' around them. Even if it's just because it costs 500m to train it and 500m to buy the data.

Then they can sell services that are measurably better than the competition...or hiring humans...

That sounds like a license to print money to me.