Besides writing code I'm also a certified massage therapist. But after the Singularity, who's gonna be able to pay for a massage?

I know enough to know there's no "the reason" and discount simplistic arguments.

I see no reason why understanding the human brain would be needed.

We have more than enough concepts and AGI models, we just need more compute imho. Compute (for the same cost) increases by a thousand times every ten years. So by Kurzweils 2045 date, compute for the same cost can be estimated to be 4.2 million times more than today.

Even if moors law ended the trend would continue because of the fact that server farms are growing at an exponential pace, and solar energy is dropping towards zero. If we have a breakthrough in fusion power it will accelerate beyond our models.

Today we can simulate vision (roughly 20% of the human brain) but we're simulating it in a way that's far more computationally efficient than the human brain, because we're making the absolute most out of our hardware.

It's pretty likely we'll reach super human level AGI well before 2045.

Try apply it to the work you’re doing. I have been. It falls over quickly; so far I’m finding it most useful to retrieve specific pieces of documentation I’m looking for rather than googling and then searching some long page for the right bit. Nothing more sophisticated than that is really very useful yet.

Just learn to use it as a new tool in your toolbox.

AI isn’t that different to any number of other tech advancements. Consider the electronic calculator. It didn’t replace mathematicians; they now just use it as a tool.

AI will be the same as this. Already is in many places.

GitHub copilot is what I’m watching though. An AI that can really understand a whole code project, file structures and servers, is going to be useful af (as opposed to chatgpt which only really gives isolated code snippets of extremely limited scope). Be excited about the new possibilities for us in software dev.

If their tech is around as good as ChatGPT, I understand their apprehension. ChatGPT reaches the level being just good enough to be dangerous. And Google is already dealing with an abundance of regulatory scrutiny. An AI that can easily instruct you on doing criminal activity, or confidently spits out misinformation as fact was likely a can of worms they'd rather kick down the road.

People really do want to use this technology though, so their hand is being forced.

Kurzweil has put AGI as surpassing human intelligence as 2045.

2029 is the date he put as Ai passing the turning test. I wouldn't be surprised if Chat-GPT can already pass the turning test.

Personally I agree with his dates and I also agree with him that it may happen sooner.

In 1990 Kurtzweil predicted an Ai would beat the worlds best chess player by 2000. It occurred in 1997.

Yes. I agree with all of that.

>it is a naturally evolved protective instinct of biological intelligence to focus on negative, undesirable future possibilities, so that we might be better able to mitigate or avoid them.

This is key. It's why focus and promotion of possible Ai scenarios that are negative from the perspective of the humans, are important. Not hollywood scenarios but ones that are well thought out from Ai scientists and researchers.

One of my favorite Quotes from Elizer Yukowsky:

>The AI does not hate you, nor does it love you, but you are made out of atoms which it can use for something else.

This is why getting Ai saftey right before it's too late is so important. Because we won't get a second chance.

It's also not possible to make a mathematically provable "solution" for Ai safety, because we can not predict how the artificial super intelligence will change and evolve after it is more intelligent than us.

But we can do the best we can and hope for the best.

I can make predictions. I'm guessing ageing is cured in 10-15 years

Is the invisible guard another AGI? Does it has its own guard?

The idea is a result of the "orthogonality thesis": the idea that goals and intelligence are two separate aspects of a system. Basically, a goal would be set and the intelligence is just a way to achieve the goal.

This kind of behavior is seen in reinforcement learning systems where humans specify a cost function, which the AI minimizes (equivalently maximizing reward). The AI will act to fulfill its goal (maximize reward) but do stupid stuff the researchers never wanted it to do, like spinning in tiny circles around the finish line of a racetrack to rack up points, for example. It's the same kind of loophole logic that comes from stories of lawyers, genies, and such that the AI agent uses to maximize reward.

It's entirely possible this method of training an agent (maximize this one loss function) is super flawed and a way better solution is yet to be created.

Demis Hassabis, did say they are working on making LLMs that are more factual or reliable. Google is afraid of failure rate of LLMs. They don't want to put something into the market that gives out too many wrong results.

I guess I don’t understand at all. Is it because of book licensing? We can still provide the same service electronically with digital books, which don’t deforest. Just heating and cooling libraries is a massive and unnecessary economic and environmental cost.

Plus the physical space could be converted to house every single homeless person in the US so they can masturbate at home instead of needing to go to the library. I see nothing but wins here.

Then there is no reason for depression/anxiety. Worst case, we all come from nothing and nothing is where we go. So what do we have to lose in the meantime? Nothing.

If you can find some happines and long term stability in life, get a girl or man, make your mark. With kids it is an entirely different ballgame.

Agreed. With all the AI that's happening, there will be a market where people will look for something "human". I was also interested in massage therapies so it's a skill I'll probably learn too.

Maybe everyone should have their own business by then lol.

Well that would happen I think with the Govt mutual funds and treasury bonds that I have them borrow with a small interest rate. But hey, small but at least zero or no risk. I won't be able to get my pension until I'm 60 anyway.

Yeah. That's why I'm working multiple jobs at once just to get that FIRE. I don't plan to do stocks currently but just use mutual funds at the moment. Any investment out there that is the least risky and always a guaranteed up in interest I would use.

Well I don't plan to anyway lol. I don't want any future generation to face this dilemma.

Vernor Vinge said he'd be surprised if singularity didnt occur before 2030. We are in the knee of the curve, whats to come in years ahead will be mindblowing. Wouldnt surprise if physical is also made obsolete soon too.

FIRE(financial independence retire early) seems a must, assuming stocks manage to retain value in the transition to the posthuman world. But it is possible we are going postscarcity and you only need cover the cost of living till the transition.

You know, people were afraid computers would take their jobs, too. They did in fact, even mental jobs. But no one would dispute they are a net benefit.

I think AGI will be gradual enough that people will adapt. You will be able to find elsewhere the aspects of your job that you like, whether it is feeling productive, contributing, socializing, income.

The end result is a multiplied cognitive output of the world, which will benefit you more than the current world.

Not having a UBI isn't the reason we don't have democracy. And creating one in an antidemocratic state will harden the antidemocratic nature as the population will be completely reliant on the state for its survival. If you don't have a working understanding of what democracy is (most Americans do not however strange that sounds) its not possible to see the danger posed

Why would a superior intelligence need to make a gazillion paperclips, is there an over abundance of paper in the future? Doesn't sound like filing papers is something a superior intelligence would be doing.

The US has no problem paying for anything in actuality. The rich suck the reserves dry and create a completely different economic outlook. Taxes are waaay too low. And they won't even pay the tax that is too low. Capitalism doesn't work. UBI within capitalism is fascism. So many are begging for it.

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This is true even without AI, and it seems we weren't ready (climate change) even for the technology we developed so far.