I find it hard it look forward. Grim dark and utopia scenarios seem equally likely. If we look back at the Internet, what do we learn? The internet started out as a project for scientists and to some extent the military to exchange information. Now it is a place where you can post funny pictures or clickbait articles. And more importantly big tech companies dominate the landscape.

Your scenario, if I understand it correctly, speaks of a single entity in control of AGI and therefore the world. I don't think it matters whether it is one entity or seven or some other small number. The problem is that you can have unintended consequences.

The internet has been used for propaganda and to recruit terrorists. If you make a system that can connect people and let them search for information, bad actors could take advantage. Make no mistake, AGI is as much a tool as a weapon. So really just to be safe we want AGI to be in the right hands. That doesn't mean giving it to everyone, but also not to a happy few.

Does it feel like a race now to be the first company to copy ChatGPT?

Hard Takeoff/FOOM scenario. Many will underestimate AGI when it gets here, there will be arguments, many of the same nature as the ones that surround ChatGPT/GPT-3, people will say it’s not really understanding anything, it’s not sentient so it can’t create anything of value, oh, it requires way too much hardware to be a hard takeoff, just ignore all that optimization we’ve done with every other algorithm since 2011, and then rinse and repeat.

I think it’ll quickly skyrocket past any Human intellect once it’s at even a sub human level of comprehension. After that point I expect chaos and finger pointing, Gary Marcus will use his same toe in line arguments, Chomsky will bury his head in the sand and say it’s not Human, whatever that means. But people here and in a lot of other places in the AI community will understand it will revolutionize the world at a rate we have never witnessed before.

Here’s the thing, Humans innovate, acclimate and then adapt, not the other way around, AGI will push forward and change the world, and those in denial, the religious crowd, the luddites and the conservatives will be left in the past until their ready to acclimate to the new tech themselves, which I’m betting on that they will. I don’t for one second think they’re going to deny any of the treatments we’ll have for aging, I could understand them not going for Nanotechnological Augmentation like a Transhumanist like myself would be doing, but many of them will at least embrace biotech at the very least.

>I will likely be one of the last to be replaced(along other skilled trades) because of the physical complications of my job.

very unwise to challenge the universe like this. keep in mind that everything you know about technology is what those people developing them want you to know. im all but certain that behind closed doors is some sort of robot hand that doesnt have to deal with the baggage of being attached to a body and is just as, if not more nimble and powerful than a human hand

I guess that I will work physically, I don't think there is a lot of other options, right?

Well, dying, but I don't really like that idea

I wish I had the cat of my grandfather

Cheer up man, as long as you have no kids, you are good. The only one you gotta take of is you.

I understand, but this time is the Mind itself thats getting automated, Creativity itself. Anything a human can do the Ai will do better. Its different this time, because in the past humans used the tools, now the tools can think for themselves.

Wow! Already and GPTChat only been out for a couple months? Technically GPT-3 been out for couple years now but still. Im kinda shocked there. Thought that would start happening in 2024, but hey the recession is happening now.

So myself, Im just going kamikaze mode on my career. As a CGI artist, Ai developments in video are coming thick and fast. I can draw, it can do that better. I can make videos, itll do that better too. If it can make a still, then it can make 24 stills per second. So im just going to implement Ai into my workflow as much as possible because its inevitable, so I just want to drive it faster. F*ck it. If CEOs can layoff workers knowing that means pushing them in the deep-end just because of declining profits, then sure well they will do that if a more efficient technique comes about.

The only reason Im not so heartbroken by Midjourney is because Im so fascinated by the technology. But Capitalism is going to have to die, honestly. This is the last ditch attempt for the elite to have complete power. I believe thats why they are buying up homes. But I dont believe the elites will get the best AI and the people will have no access to it. The engineers and the basement hackers will develop something, and are. Stability.ai is dedicated to democratising Ai. The elite cant control this tbh, thats why I think they are scrambling trying to become more authoritarian with the 2030 Agenda, "You will own nothing an be happy." People are already not standing for it because of the information highway the Internet is. You can see they can't control information anymore. Nobody watches the 'selected propaganda box' anymore, the TV. Imagine being able confirm with Ai if what the president said is true or not, and it says "no, this is whats really going on based on my search." We already dont trust the gov at record levels now. They are in trouble lol.

We need Ai to handle Creation, Production and Distribution. It has the capability to handle even the Creation part, even the conceptualisation of a new product, in time, by prompting itself. Life is really just going to be about giving the Ai more capability to look after us tbh, to the point of APM (Atomically Precise Manufacturing), then that will be the true Age of Abundance.

But its that transition from now to then that is just the trickiest bit. Its really just the elites having to give up and not hold on to power. But how can you tell a billionaire that his money is now worthless? All I can really see is -

1. Immense desperation as competition rises because anyone can be an expert with Ai assistance.
2. More crime because of this.
3. Elites act stupid and kick people out of homes, even though theyll need the money flow. Causing more social unrest.
4. Or they lower home rent prices for UBI households.
5. Elites get poorer because no one can buy shit as much anymore. (They cant keep manufacturing advancements to themselves like in Elysium, because its about feeling more powerful than others who submit. No one will submit to that kind of reality even if there are robot guards. The elite will be in constant fear of the masses more than ever before.)
6. Then money just becomes worthless as no labour is really needed.
7. Ai takes over as the Benevolent created God. Handling all decisions even on a political level, and just becomes our Mother. While we have sex, drugs, alcohol, sport, entertainment that Ai creates, music, space exploration, spiritual enlightenment, all free of charge.

We will still want forms of Competition, but that will now get much less important and will become very superficial. There wont be mandatory competitiveness anymore, itll be just for emotional satisfaction. Which then would lead to all sorts of problems of behavioural classification, judging each other alot because theres nothing else to subdue each other with.

I believe a capability like that could be a key for our survival. It is required for our Alignment as the humanity. I.e. us being able to act together for the interest of Humanity as a whole. As the direst political lies are usually aimed at the splitting people apart and fear each other, as they are easier to control and manipulate in that state.
Also, this ability could be necessary for strong AI even being possible, as strong AI should be able to reason successfully on partially unreliable information.
And lastly, this ability will be necessary for AIs to check each other AIs reasoning.

Read a book. Learn to knit. Await the day that AI inevitably decides that we make good batteries.

Interesting how Covid, and nationwide riots, mass shootings, hyperinflation on everything, and ChatGPT, and mass amounts of layoffs are all happening at once... That is interesting... Too bad a lot of laid off people can't network cooperate and pool their resources together buy land and create self sustaining communities.

Disruption also creates chaos.

Stress levels are going through the roof...psych meds are killing people and more and more people are waking up to that... There'll be a huge demand for natural ways to reduce stress... Big demand...

An AGi is not tested against the forces of evoution and therin lies the problem and maybe our doom. Humans are imperfect for a reason, it allows us to survive.

We humans follow a system called heuristics, a method that is not guaranteed to be optimal, perfect, or rational, but is nevertheless sufficient for reaching an immediate, short-term.

Suppose you are a doctor and face 10.000 patients in your life. The "code" for a doctor as general instruction is the Hippocratic Oath, it works good enough. Yet there may be cases where a doctor should not keep people alive at all costs.

An AGI would be "god like" in computing powers and calculate eventualities a human is not capable to comprehend.

An AGI might give people what they wish, not what they want.

One example is the famous paperclip maximizer experiment. An ASI is given the goal to produce as many paperclips as possible and proceeds by converting every atom of the observable universe into paperclips. Again, constraints can be added to the goal, but an ASI would always find a loophole:

Goal: produce at least one million paperclips. Solution: the ASI will still build infinite paperclips, because it would never assign exactly 100% probability to the hypothesis that it has achieved its goal.

Goal: produce exactly one million paperclips. Solution: the ASI will build one million paperclips, but it can never be 100% sure that they are exactly one million. It would count them again and again. To become more efficient at counting, it will increase its computational power by converting atoms into computronium (computing matter), eventually destroying the observable universe.

Goal: produce exactly one million paperclips and stop doing anything when you are 99% sure. Solution: the ASI will build one million paperclips, but it will produce a perverse instantiation of the criterion to compute the probability.

Goal: produce exactly one million paperclips and stop doing anything when you are 99% sure. The probability is assigned by an external device. Solution: the ASI will hack the device.

I could continue this game forever, and I would eventually find a satisfying solution that seems flawless. The problem is that I’m human, an ASI would be way smarter than me and it would find flaws that I couldn’t even imagine.

The problen is laid out at https://medium.com/i-human/why-we-should-really-be-afraid-of-ai-an-analysis-of-obvious-and-non-obvious-dangers-cb2dfb8f905d

Aren't chefs already using ChatGPT for 'original' recipes?

What is LEV?

Adjusted for runaway inflation and how much do your money will be worth in 10 years? See what I'm getting at? I say there should be a trend for networking grouping up and pooling resources together buy land and develop as much as self sustaining communities as possible with localized trade... That immediately reduces cost and makes for affordable living for those communities.

I'll be the approver

Send it to me before you check it

SSI has is and will be the UBI... Where have you been?

Yh but thats not really the point here. Ai can learn magnitudes faster than a beginner. So if youre not already at the top right now, then youve not got much hope imo. The thing can already code, boy...

All of this is strange and disconcerting timing. Let's do a rewind of events in the past several years. Information and identity theft is rampant. COVID and various mutations of Covid start and still proliferate. Ports are shutdown. The Beirut port explodes. Nationwide riots. Nationwide Mass shootings. Russian and Ukraine war. Hyperinflation ensues. Energy prices spike. ChatGPT becomes available. Extreme weather patterns. Thousands of layoffs from the major tech companies ensue. Wages can't keep up with hyperinflation. More and more people will be forced onto early SSI and the food stamps card or UBI... All these events are related... I think we are already in a great global culling and it will continue. The only slaves they need are people heavily involved with AI software engineering, people involved with materials design and robotics... I'm convinced that there is a global social credit score and theyve already determined who lives and who dies. What do you guys think?

The argument I find most convincing is that whilst technology is moving fast, politicts is always slow. Stuff like regulations and a general political misunderstanding of AI might lead to pushback against AI or they might purposely slow down development. Even if AI was made that could replace something such a mcdonalds workers the government may place a ban or tax on companies using AI in order to keep employment high. It sounds like a dumb solution (and I agree) but to politicians this might sound like a good solution.

please, please, let the industry of the redditor who never visits a library and says ignorant shit never die.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNG62fULYgI

There will always be something