ChatGPT 4.0 must be revolutionary...

Wonder if it would go crazy with my lazy eye? ;-)

>I'm quite sure at this point that you understand what I mean even if my examples weren't that great.

You don't even know what you mean. You gave examples, but you weren't able to describe what you mean. Unless, you really do mean "the consumer market determines that it likes AI music and movies" which as I mentioned, is an artificial representation anyway.

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>In your initial post you asserted that AIs will never surpass humans in what you called "subjectively meaningful tasks", citing their lack of i) will, ii) life and iii) ability to sense the world around them, as arguments.I gave my argument for why I believe they may,

Well you're objectively wrong. They dont.

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>which is that I think our brains can be perfectly modeled as computing machines.

Don't hold your breath, it might be decades.

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> I replied in the hope of hearing more about your thoughts and arguments for your position.

I don't do pseudointellectualistic debates. Facts are facts. Dont like it, tough.

>Seeing how you fail to give any arguments to support your point and instead have resorted to ad hominem and trying to funny, it's pretty clear you don't have any.

See above, I am not here to argue. Just tell you to stop being pseudointellectual. Not insulting you here, you sound to me like a ego-head teenager or delusional young adult. You haven't even begun to ascend the slope of enlightenment yet.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

Before the bashing starts , Booch is actually a titan of CS and definitely deserves respect, that being said he is also a bit cynical sometimes

I've no idea about the AGI timeline.

However, we are very close to quasi AGI.

We could have 99% human-like help desk, human like doctors etc within a year or so.

That is clearly the obvious next step.

I'm not sure how easy that will be 'tho.

It could be that a large 'frozen' model in combination with some clever run-time code and a modicum of short/medium term memory would suffice.

After all, the human brain seems (to me) to be a huge static memory plus relatively little run-time stuff.

It’s wild how a decade ago protein folding was an insane problem to solve. People were waiting together cloud super computers just to solve a single protein. Then 2 years ago Google releases a program that can do any and all folding almost instantly.

Gary often raises valid criticism - the believability of which is completely drained when he posts some weird ass takes - Him heavily implying cynicism because of a fundamental limitation in LLMs, something he should be aware of

Own a nVidia card compatible with nVidia Broadcast. Works with any camera source.

You can definitely predict some things outside of five years with good accuracy. Look at Moore's Law. That's way more accurate than predictions need to be to be useful. Sure if nukes were exchanged all bets are off, but outside of that I just disagree with your statement. For instance: will China's gender imbalance cause them trouble in ten years? It almost certainly will.

Pretty easily...?

How do you plan to make it not kill everyone, either by mistake in alignment, or someone intentionally running a misaligned AGI? I don't see how it can be done without extreme safety measures, such as many AIs and people keeping an eye on every AI and evey human at all time.

10 billion means something big was shown to Microsoft.

The focus is currently on Deep Learning. So why would DL not bring AGI in its current form? First in simple terms, how does it work? The most common setup uses inputs and weights. The sum of the products is propagated. There are ReLus, batch normalisation, residual connections and all kinds of tricks in between. The outputs are checked against expected values. Weights are then updated to fit the expected outputs against given inputs.

There are multiple neural layers. That is why we speak of Deep Learning. So to use a crude analogy, imagine that you are the leader of a squad. Imagine that your soldiers understand 80% of your orders. Now imagine being the platoon leader. Imagine again that your squad leaders again understand 80% of your orders. How many of your orders reach your soldiers? Imagine having a hundred or more layers. Adding layers isn't free. And with almost all AI companies doing the same, we will run out of GPUs soon.

Also real neurons are more complicated than in the DL models. There are things like spiking, brain plasticity, neurotransmitters, and synapse plasticity that DL doesn't take into account. So the obvious solution is neuromorphic hardware and appropriate algorithms. It's anyone's guess when they will be ready.

Thanks for the heads up I’ll be sure to investigate

Even after this people like Gary Marcus will call deep learning a "gimmick" and a "waste of money"

Do you consider my predictions made at the start of 2023 to be pessimistic or conservative?

2030 - AGI

2040 - ASI

2050 - Singularity

Of course I hope I’m wrong and that these things happen a lot sooner. The sooner the better.

It’s just I don’t like to be too optimistic to the point to where it’s wishful thinking.

So now I can cheat in online exam without problem

I expect AGI around 2030.

I think that the most likely reason (but still not sufficiently probable to affect my estimate) for extending AGI timeline is that the brain does use quantum acceleration for some parts of its functionality.

Great reference and amazing poem. There's a pretty powerful scene in Interstellar where someone reads the first parts of it as they set off...

So what's the point, the ai just output some garbage, but without any more test it's worthless, we don't know if it's garbage or something really useful...

2035+

The one AGI project I'm close to has a design, potential solutions for all the big problems, and a loose plan for implementation. So I'm going largely off of that, but funding, building, training, and testing takes time. Rushing it wouldn't help anything anyway.

The few others that I've seen that have potential (in my opinion of course) will probably get it eventually, but are missing some things. Whether those things become showstoppers or not has yet to be seen. And no, they have nothing to do with LLMs.

I also think that society needs to prepare. I'm actually becoming more comfortable with people calling non-AGI AGI because it will help people get used to it, and encourage discussion, get new laws on the books, etc. I don't think there's much use trying to pin an exact date on it, because even after the first real AGI is available, it will just be the first of many.

I believe that altering all of existence into a paradise and ending suffering is what we, as intelligent beings, are here to do. Actually, more than a belief...I KNOW that is the goal and that it is possible, given enough technology and enough time.

As you see from responses, the majority of people are ignorant to this and some even act strangely hostile to the idea. I was once ignorant to it too. People need events and information to line up in their lives for them to reach the point of understanding, and they need to see beyond themselves and their own happiness. If I could be fortunate enough to live in my own bubble of paradise, I would still be devastated by the suffering outside my bubble and I can't rest until this is solved (on a smaller scale, I already feel this). That's the point that I've reached, and I have a mind that imagines possibility after possibility. That's why I strive toward this. I'm not saying I'm perfect (extremely far from it) but my perspective has changed to give me this understanding.

So, I'm grateful that you posted this.

When it comes to predictions-

Generally anyone who speaks so matter-of-fact about things on a timeline greater than 5 years can be safely ignored.

I've mentioned this before, but its said that future predictions can only be reasonably extrapolated on a timeline of roughly 3 years with 5 years allowing for some leeway, but past that there are simply too many unknowns/variables to extrapolate upon that one is just guessing at that point.

What's interesting is this applies to both laymen and experts, as even educated guessing is still guessing.

You find a way to make it recurrent (keep state alongside input buffer), add memory (working, as a part of the said state, and long-term), overcome catastrophic forgetting in online learning, find efficient intrinsic motivations. Maybe it's enough.