It has always been the case that people working within a field over-estimate how long it will take to achieve things within that field. They are hyper focused on their tiny part and miss the big picture.

To make accurate predictions you need to use data, trendlines and growth curves. It literally doesn't matter how many "experts" are surveyed, the facts remain the facts.

A few people making data and trendline based predictions hold far more weight than an infinite number of "experts" that base their predictions on anything other than trendlines.

I know that this steak is not real, my mind is telling me that it is juicy and delicious, and you know what I realized? Ignorance is bliss!

Here me out.... It's Probably this yr or the nest to max... No further then that....

No

I think the majority of users on this sub are 12-14

Tnx

Sure, Quick caveat: I've been told that it doesnt work with all screen sizes so I'll be fixing that

unravelraza.ca

Weakly general sounds strange to me. Sounds like almost human. I think we need some sort of minimal requirements otherwise we might be talking about different things.

I think AGI has to at minimum:

• be multimodal
• Embodied
• Know how to learn
• Able to follow a chain of arguments
• Able to communicate with autonomy
• Understand ethical principles

And there are many other things, but these seem hard enough. I think the first two are doable by 2027. Not so sure about the others.

I know how people love to talk about exponential growth. But let's not forget that something has to drive it. Deep learning has been driven by GPUs and the abundance of data. Both are not inexhaustible resources.

Yes, this seems to be his argument.

It is still astonishing. Most people think fusion in the business *might* be physically possible in twenty to thirty years and even at that point it is unclear if it economically viable.

have used it for log and error code analysis. You can ask it to look for certain things in the logs/errors and then have a dialog about anything it spots, etc. A lot of times you can literally just paste in raw logs without any other context and it will point out the sorts of things that would have jumped out to me....but it does it instantly whereas I would have taken a few minutes minimum.

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I have found that it can generate an initial reply to most support tickets that is usually on par with what I would have wrote, just requiring some tweaking.

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I also had it generate technical documentation for a web app project where I just fed it the raw html and javascript. What it produced was rough but passable as a rough first draft.

I used it mainly for Code and IT related help. Also for bedtime stories for my kids :)
After using ChatGPT, I signed up for, and are now using Githubs Copilot when coding.

Could you share the fodmap stuff?

There are one quadrillion tons of diamonds on our planet. Unimaginable abundance, yet they cost on average $5000 a gram. What your describing will never exist because many people’s idea of paradise is very, very different from yours.

I’ll say it. Republicans continue for ruin society from getting any closer to a better reality. At least for those not rich and privileged.

I think most experts fit in the latter group, though, and the ones who have very optimistic timelines are a minority in that group too, and not just in general.

May I see it?

I love your take.

My guess is that most AI researchers are pretty familiar with AI beyond narrow cases, so I think most of them are qualified to give an answer to "will AGI ever arrive, and if so, when?".

Also, I get the sense that a lot of the AGI crowd knowingly engage in hype to get more publicity, and it makes sense. "AGI soon" is a lot sexier of a discussion to touch on on a podcast (for example) as opposed to "AGI far away".

Perhaps it wouldn't. Or it would just trade one problem for another. Instead of learning to live with our differences, everyone just silos themselves off into their own virtual spaces where they only know freedom, security and validation and never any real pain or misery. Humanity splinters apart into countless subgroups, each defined by cultures so different from each other that they become incomprehensible and alien to those outside of them.

It's fair for one to see it as a dystopian scenario, but compared to the continuation of business as usual, I think that it could be a lesser evil. What is better? Continuing to let different ideologies struggle against each other, knowing that it will cause political violence? Or is it more civilized to give people their own virtual safe space, knowing that it isn't real?

That said, a theoretical aligned super intelligence could do a lot to lower the temperature on societal tensions without resorting to FDVR. Eliminating poverty would remove many if not most of the factors that drive people to extreme positions in the first place. Space colonization could give people more choices where to live and what ideologies they want to align with.

As great as that would be, you would still have different people with different opinions living together. As long as that is the case, there is the possibility of disagreement, and if there is a disagreement that is important enough, it will have to be solved by either compromise or conflict.

I think Andrew Yang would be elected president if nobody else would budge on UBI and there would be Yang approved members of Congress that would make up a large quantity of Congress probably as well.

>I want to live in fantasy world.

This sub is really weird.

It’s a nice idea but the main thing missing is neuralink / contact lens enabled AR making us more of a hive mind. Why watch TV when you are walking through 3D internet at all times? Brave New World Series does a decent job of capturing this.

Let that sink in.

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Built my portfolio website with it.

Double exponential growth, mid 2023.