I'm inclined to trust the people actually building AI. 50% or experts agreeing AGI is likely in the next 30 years is still pretty insane. Personally I think a lot of the AI by 2030 folks are delusional.

Helped me a lot with Linux kernel assignments as I missed a couple of classes.

Ok I just sang it in my head, in the voice of Eminem, and yep it totally rhymes now.

That's some next level shit right there.

And the half that agrees with you counts more than the half that doesn't because reasons? I'm a delusional idiot for sharing the same opinion as a tiny, miniscule, insignificant, irrelevant, vanishingly small, barely even existent 50 percent demographic?

And you have a huge crime problem do you not.

Trucks will monitored remotely from a central location. A human driver will drive the truck by satellite like a remote-control race car.

He's not wrong... In a 2017 survey distributed among AI veterans only 50% think a true AGI will arrive before 2050 https://research.aimultiple.com/artificial-general-intelligence-singularity-timing/

I'd be interested in a more recent poll but this was the most up to date that I could find.

EDIT: Found this from last year https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H6hMugfY3tDQGfqYL/what-do-ml-researchers-think-about-ai-in-2022

Looks like predictions haven't changed all that much, but there's still a wide range. Nobody really knows that's certain.

Do you even listen to Eminem?

If you wanted to dismiss metaclus, you would argue that since it's not a real money betting market, operating for a long period of time, it's not going to work that well. Real money means that people are going to only vote when they are confident, and the long timespan means that losers lose money, and winners gain money, and over time this gives the winners larger "votes" because they can bet more money.

Over an infinite timespan, the winners become the only bettors.

As for AGI in 2027: sure. I mean it's like predicting the first crossing of the atlantic by plane after planes are flying around all over shorter distances. It's obviously possible.

Does metaculus only poll people in the field and verify credentials or can anybody submit an estimate? If it's the latter, why take any stock in it? AI seems like one of those things that attracts a lot of fanatics who don't know what they're talking about.

Polls of industry veterans tend to hover around a 40% change of AGI by 2035

Only thing I think it can be is the Helion reactor design. Extracting the energy directly rather than Heat > Steam > Turbine. I'd imagine that would lead to much cheaper plant design and fabrication. Also if the design is good at a specific scale then arrays can be constructed.

edit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1vyMcqiVtA

Nice catch, damn. I gotta be honest, I was pretty fucking drunk when I wrote this last night. To the point where when I looked back at my Reddit this morning I was surprised to see it cause I barely remember writing it.

So it is entirely possible there’s some amazing subconscious plot layers and themes going on here that I can’t even take full credit for.

How do you know we’re not already? Do you always know you’re dreaming? I’m not trying to be argumentative. But if the technology works so well we don’t know the difference then there’s no difference.

Are you insinuating solipsism?

Companies that have already invested in big machines or equipment that need humans to operate will move to full automation very slowly. If a company just bought many human driven trucks it'll take them long time to switch to fully automated trucks or to upgrade already purchased ones. If a manufacturing plant has been designed with human workers in mind it'll take time and more investment to get full automation. And we're still long way from affordable humanoid robots.

On the other hand if some simple AI cloud subscription could automate the work of an office worker, call center worker, accountant or programmer, that would happen a lot faster.

IMHO office jobs will start getting automated on a large scale in a few years. And a lot earlier than truck or bus drivers.

Aspirational jobs that require a degree and student debt are more at a risk than manual labour.

It helped re-write my resume and cover letter.

I wish I could do that but I need the signature of the client before I leave. Sometimes it does get sent to corrections where you can correct it with a supervisor. Part of me wants to become one just so I can correct my own notes lol

Expanding our capacity for creativity.

I saw a guy make a biofeedback soundscape machine that monitored ECG and EEG and controlled sounds with that data - coded initially with GPT. WTFFFFF

The company side is annoying to use! Classic.

I'm sure you already see the template prompt for notes of that style you could use

Just free associate to your phones mic, throw down all your thoughts post meeting and GPT orders it nicely for you. More time for presence! More time to focus on the client!

This is very true. Even in developed countries, there's large difference between locations.

Seems no one else noticed that you totally ghosted your new garden friends to play your TV-show video game.

Write a haiku in the style of Basho, thanking a reddit user for sharing novel uses for chatGPT:

Innovative mind,
Sharing new ways to use my skills,
Thanks, dear Reddit user.

Yes, using it to help me code in swift/SwiftUI. It’s like having a 24/7 tutor. Now I don’t need to go onto stack overflow as much as I used to.

Doesn't rhyme properly. Maybe next upgrade GPT.

Weird, some super aggressive, inflammatory guy outright called me a delusional idiot for not believing AGI to take until 2050-2065 (which is, in his words, the consensus amongst almost all AI experts).