Sounds like a rather large grain of salt

It also makes me sad when I read so often that people hate the world and universe and just want to live in a VR.

I too would occasionally live out fantasies in VR for e.g. ride a dragon a la Daenerys, like when you watch a film or read a book but then return to reality and experience great things there.

I‘d rather wish for progress in medical AI then that can help with mental health and other medical stuff.

Here's the thing. With the possibility being so close, you could argue the date is now being more heavily influenced by the pessimists. If the prediction date is 2027 that only gives the optimists 5 years to play with, but the pessimists can go as far out the other side as they want.

In a sense it doesn't matter because it will happen when it happens and the prediction date is like reading tea leaves - a thing you look at to distract yourself whilst you come up with a forecast.

It is worth remembering that technology moves at the rate of the fastest. Everyone else has to catch up to the new point and restart from there. What I'm trying to say is that predicted dates reflect what each individual knows but actual dates will reflect only what the fastest groups achieve. If Bob predicts 2035 based on his knowledge, but doesn't know that Sue has already achieved (but not published) several of the steps on his timeline, Bob's prediction is worthless. We obviously don't know ahead of time who falls into which category, all we can say for sure is that the pessimists are more likely to be caught out.

> Given a choice, most people work as little as possible for a "living".

this is demonstrably not true. to survive in the 21st century in a developed country you could work for a few hours a day (maybe even not at all if you're in a place with a good welfare system or good homeless shelters). your quality of life would be terrible by modern standards, obviously, but you could survive. the vast majority of people work more in the modern day because we like modern comforts and we're willing to trade some time to have dishwashers and air conditioning and high speed internet.

I'm totally with you on this, it's important to keep re-aligning with positive outcomes and reminding others that negativity and "being a realist" are not the same things.
I'm not the first to say that AGI would probably map, explore, and populate the galaxy with life long before we would ever be able to make it past proxima centauri on our own, but it has occurred to me that VR would be a wonderful way for the AGI to show humanity what other worlds are like if it was inclined to do so. I know that I would personally feel honored to have a front row seat to something like that.

Also I think the most important part of taxing rich is progressive taxing passive income from the stock market. Maybe we don't even need to increase income taxes. Maybe we just need to modify passive income taxes.

It does two things really well:

1. Incentives rich to create things instead of just sitting on the money
2. Very predictable flow of money to UBI

AGI 2025 or bust.

(Please take this with a grain of salt. I don't know anything, and I play video games for a living.)

I think public opinion sort of bounces back and forth around issues trying to find "balance".

In the 70s there was a public push to reduce taxes, which overtime resulted in a massive reduction of effective taxes for the rich and since then inequality has been exploding.

A bit of breathing room happened in 90s which calmed the public I think. A lot of good things happened.

At some point hopefully not too late it'll again reach to the point where the public push towards higher taxes for the rich will make sense to part of republican constituents.

I actually think we're very close, we already had basically UBI payments across the whole country during pandemic and nobody bat an eye even though just a few years ago it seemed impossible.

There just needs to be some kind of public catalyst to implement effective taxes level of near 1970s levels and also start UBI at the same time. It doesn't even needs to be large or to be called "ubi". It could be a bunch of different things that would together act as a UBI, but we won't call it that.

Very interesting. I keep waiting for the prediction timer to stall but it just keeps jumping closer to the present. I can't wait to see which direction it moves when GPT4 is released.

Every universe that allows technological civilization will contain many simulations. Therefore, there will be more simulations, than real universes.

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Prison chains before freedom

There's nothing wrong with acting to make the real world a better, more fair and just place for ourselves, collectively. Raise the living standard, make education available to more people, lower the crime rate, shutter environmentally hazardous technology for the sake of cleaner, more renewable alternatives. Despite what pessimists may say, progress is being made on all of those fronts. There are good reasons to believe that, when you remove yourself from the daily news and the current events, that humanity and the Earth are going in the right direction.

But the real world will never be a paradise. It will never be a paradise because the concept of paradise is an inherently personal opinion, and those opinions are too different to avoid causing conflict between different people.

Tell me, what paradise do you intend to build that would satisfy both multiculturalists and ethnic supremacists? What paradise is there that would appeal to both the atheist and the theocrat? What about marxists and randians? What about the anarchists and the authoritarians? Environmentalists and industrialists?

In other words, you will never have your perfect world as long as you are made to share it with other, incompatible people. This is why I believe that individualized, fully immersive virtual reality is the best, most viable path to avoid conflict and give everybody the existence that they want.

What is it that your heart desires? Do you want to be a superhero? A super spy? A king? An intergalactic bounty hunter? Do you want to live in an anime world? A cyberpunk city? The old west? Tatooine? Hogwarts? Maybe you want to be more attractive. Maybe you want to be the opposite gender? Maybe you want to be your fursona. Or a dragon, or a demon, or an angel, or a god, or a devil. Maybe you just want a world that's exactly like the real one, except without the people who make it a miserable place to live.

So what if it isn't real? So what if you're surrounded by philosophical zombies? That just means that they can never judge you, or betray you, or attack you, or mock you, or bully you, or reject you. They will never hurt you without your consent... and it is that peace of mind, born of absolute security and personal validation that will create paradise.

I would assume a multiverse would contain a set larger than any possible simulated set considering they are offspring of the multiverse in which not every universe necessarily has simulated realities.

The current socioeconomic standards are not compatible with AI growth. AI in conjuction with hardcore capitalism is a recipe for mayhem.

Why? Because we will have all the means and tools, to make the world a better more viable place for everyone and we will use it for profit, again.

I presume this will result in first global awakening with massive riots all over the world. That will be the end of the capitalism as we all know it and the beginning of something more viable for everyone.

At this point AI will have the basic role of consulting politicians. An immediate democratic system, since we will all be connected online 24/7, will be more appropriate.

We will see a lot regulations and a code of conduct for using AI on business after the first "Beta catastrophic unregulated period" simply because it's impossible for the (1/3 or more) of working force to go unemployed . Work is a human right.

Of course.. it will be a matter of time before humanity relapse and go back to what it does best. I hope we would learn and become better on this after many years.

The problem is, once robotics technology gets good enough to replace all jobs, police and military are included in that. And from what we’ve seen of the rich over the past few decades, does literally anyone think they wouldn’t prefer to simply massacre everyone with killbots over paying us?

People think they will be a cool ninja fighting monsters in full dive but they will just end up stuck in some drug euphoria until the heat death of the universe.

Not necessarily in a post AI world, though.

I.e. unlimited cheap, clean energy to grow crops underground in caverns built by robots that work for free. Or in space, and have fusion powered spacecraft.

In such a future, the least developed countries would have a standard of living beyond that of the wealthiest countries.

That level of abundance is also part of the singularity. Also, lots of planets to populate and terraform.

>As AI begins to replace jobs, unemployment will begin to rise assuming new jobs aren't created when old jobs are replaced.

In the past, mechanization and automation was pretty much contained to one role at a time, not even necessarily one job at a time. So, if you mechanized sewing, you could sell more clothes at a cheaper price point, driving demand for sales clerks, designers, managers, construction workers to build new stores, and so on.

The thing is that this wave of automation is coming for arbitrary jobs. There's nothing that eventually won't be able to be done better, or at least more cheaply, by some software, maybe with a robot attached. Soon (now?), if you can make a better shirt for a cheaper price, you can sell it on a website, have an AI write the copy, have a robot build your warehouse, have a self-driving truck bring the shirts to a shipping service, a smaller self-driving truck go to a neighborhood, and a drone drop the shirt off at the customer's doorstep. Where's the new job for humans? Influencer? How many of those can an economy support?

You also now lost the jobs for the truck stop workers, and maybe some additional gas station and fast food workers. The self-driving trucks and drones will need maintenance, but likely less than older ICE vehicles. Planning on having robot maintainers replace the lost jobs will only work until the robots can repair themselves. (More likely an automated repair depot caring for modular robots).

As you note, it will probably take some time to get to that future. But it will be decades, and not centuries. How many of us can become plumbers and electricians before those manual, non-routine jobs are lost, too?

>This will take many years to manifest, beginning with basic jobs like long haul transport and admin services, and compounding over years towards more complicated jobs like the trades.

Don't forget that a lot of "difficult" knowledge jobs will be automated, too, and probably well before the trades. It won't just be fast food workers, truck drivers, and personal assistants.

Well, there are riots from time to time already.

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Anyway, we are not yet there. Not even close.

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And governments move always too slow, that's not even a question... But most people who what UBI are highly unrealistic about it.

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I totally see a UBI in the future, but unemployment has to go up A LOT before that.

i almost exclusively use playground as opposed to chatgpt, but i find it helplful for

writing sql queries

writing javascript that manipulates or accesses json that you can give it a structured example of

helped me figure out emacs keybindings in some instances

i occasionally use it to generate text or bounce random thoughts i have off of it.

has helped me get started on my taxes by suggesting relevant forms

The year is 2258. I am immortal. The AI decided it was unethical to let humans die. But I’m not living. The birth rate has been decimated several times over but the population keeps growing. There aren’t enough resources for everyone so our bodies have been modified to do more with less. Every year it gets a little worse. I’ve managed to escape three times but they just restored me from backup. I take small comfort in the fact that I’m a ship of Theseus. I hear our benefactors have started plans to build a mega structure in the Helix nebula. There will be enough resources there to share for a long time. But that still means thousands of years living like this. I wish I could upload to silicon and turn down the clock speed but my identity is apparently tied to my biology and the AI’s won’t allow that change. There are too many people. I can’t stretch my legs.

I am a photographer - using it to generate shot lists, and questions for event organizers has been great.

For instance, I am shooting a women’s nonprofit mountain biking event later this year. ChatGPT list it off a ton of cool shots I would not of thought of that I can now plan around.

I use it for literally every meeting now.

I made it code an arduino based synthesizer. Still gotta build it tho.

Reasoning is nowhere near near-complete.

Nor is reading and comprehension.

Hearing and speech still struggles with accents.

We're struggling to tell the difference between a proficient model and a pretty good parrot.