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I think you turn $1 billion into $1 in less than 10 years…..

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You’re asking if trying to time the market is a good idea. Even professionals routinely fail at this. The answer is a resounding “no”.

Also be mindful about quoting “average” returns. Read this, and pay particular attention to the graphic.

https://www.morningstar.in/posts/48522/the-flaw-of-averages.aspx

What if I continue to predict the market with 35% certainty? What then?

My first car: a beater I bought for $1500, sold for $1700. My second car: bought from an old man’s estate sale for $8500, sold after driving it to death for $9200. I now ride a brand new motorcycle I bought for $6500, fill up for $11 every two weeks, and we just bought my partner a newer SUV. I’ve been driving for 14 years. Point is, you gotta learn to crawl before you can walk.

I never said I could. Just asking whether or not it's worth considering. Explicitly said it's very hard to ever know.

Professionals with armies of quants behind them.

If you can predict the market with 51% certainty then you can turn $1 into a billion in less than 10 years

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Professionals can't do this with success. What makes you think you can?

They're unlikely to drop relative to pre-2020 levels, but they should get pretty close.

I'm talking specifically about used cars here, and you can see in the Manheim wholesale used car index that the wholesale market has already dropped considerably over the last few months, and it's likely to continue dropping. The used market hasn't dropped much, but that's likely to happen as inventory builds up and dealerships need to liquidate their inventory. If Carvana and similar companies go under, that's another flood of used cars hitting the market.

The situation for new cars has gotten better as well, with production numbers improving and prices coming back down to MSRP. Supply is starting to match demand, but it'll probably take longer for the new car market than the used car market simply because new cars didn't experience nearly as much price inflation as used cars, they just had limited availability (i.e. you'd get on a wait-list for months).

Both are improving, and time will tell if that continues or if we have another supply chain disruption.

But he made the money from the companies, or from me? The "free trial" thing made me think I just had to cancel the subscriptions. I'm alright with the lost time, just hoping I didn't lose my money. I think one of the things said it was a dollar at signup. Hopefully *I* didn't lose all that money?

And, thanks. Duly noted. Will not do in the future.

Endorsed. Doctors don’t need your SSN. I leave it blank. If they ask, I’m ready to parry with a question about their filing security (we’re talking paper here!)—but tbh, nobody has ever pushed back.

Thank you! I have fidelity and will look into that.

My retirement (and frankly all my serious investing) is in Mutual funds. not necessarily index funds, but mutual funds.

I think index funds are a good place to start... and you can trade inside a retirement account without any tax implications.

Other than save for retirement I want to buy a house. I don’t have a lot saved up though.

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I live in California and I don’t think I have the money to invest in real estate right now.

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Depends on what it’s for. My budget has about $70/p for misc house products. Toilet paper, paper towels, soap, cleaning product, toothpaste, floss, etc etc.

Could be that.

You may find these links helpful:

• "How to handle $"
• Investing

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>Then absolutely get rid of the car. The used car market is dropping and will continue to drop over the next year, so you're going to get less and less for it the longer you wait.

Just like real estate is dropping, eh? Also like real estate, dropping 3% after rising 30% isn't really "dropping" (BONUS: You're not supposed to pay over MSRP for any automobile that's not a niche or exotic model, ever, so back to MSRP prices is not a "drop" either).

I just bought and fixed a loaded Buick in Pgh for less than what you spend in a year @ $300/mo inc. $115/yr more insurance.

How often are you going out with friends? Uber would probably be more cost effective.