Recent comments in /f/newhampshire

l337quaker t1_j9mqf3k wrote

I'm curious, CloudBoy, what's your take on New England Weather Guy on Facebook (if you're familiar him.) He's usually much better than the various apps and news stations for accuracy.

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j9mp3su wrote

A good question! Your phone app is using some deterministic model or a "hodge-podge" of gridded products to deliver your forecast, all of which are likely low-resolution and a single forecast.

You immediately run into problems with that approach because we live in a state with many climates (which requires high resolution data), models have biases as they're run deeper into a forecast period, and single model forecasts don't show potential uncertainty like what I've been doing here the past few days.

The company I work for is developing a solution to this issue, I'll recommend whichever app takes our data in the future :)

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j9mnn4h wrote

So that featured I drew into the grids was intentionally done in each forecast for this event based on meteorologist experience (a combo of going to school at Lyndon State and forecasting for the area for numerous years). The reason behind that swath of lower totals stems from SE winds forced over the Kinsman-Cannon Range & Garfield Ridge, which is called downsloping. This dries out & warms the environment locally, which is more hostile to adding up precipitation there in those regimes.

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ScottieWP t1_j9mmesk wrote

You remind me of Space City Weather, which was my go to in Houston. No nonsense forecasts with the data to back it up, and in such a way that us laymen can understand it. Keep up the good work!

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j9mm52q wrote

Ahh maybe not a bad call if you're up and about before sunrise! The margins are going to be razor thin in York County between steady sleet and not a ton of snow and heavy snow that adds up over 6" there. If you're south of Wells, I think you're fine regardless

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