Recent comments in /f/newhampshire

DeerFlyHater t1_j9mjf6a wrote

It depends.

The prime sponsor of last year's MJ bill that passed the House and got killed in the Senate is now in the Senate. A lot of those old senators are gone. There is still that ancient dude from Manchester in there who came out firmly against it last year. Lou Dala..something. Also Sharon Carson's worthless ass.

IMO there might be enough new blood in the Senate.

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MrEtrain t1_j9mjefn wrote

I live in the Upper Valley and we seem to always end up with slightly lower totals than very nearby (Lebanon/Hanover area). Assume it’s due to being east of the Greens and in a river valley, but you have a pretty detailed, small zone carved out in this area and wonder what you see that leads to this specific location/wrinkle. Otherwise appreciate the work! Guess we’ll see how it all pans out pretty soon- looks like a lot of snow in a hurry.

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totalimmortal_ t1_j9mi9ht wrote

I do not doubt you at all and appreciate your accuracy, but genuinely curious behind the “why” of your comment of the information from our phone app is trash. Are the sources behind Apple’s Weather app not accurate or trusted and would you recommend a different App?

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Different_Ad7655 t1_j9mh2hl wrote

Haha, I don't like New Hampshire Winters anymore after working in the snow removal service for 35 years and I'm parked in Los Angeles under a palm tree. But soon soon I will be back like the swallows. Just about taxtime I return, although, I should be back earlier this year. Trying to buy a house but the pickings are slim and I am so fussy But can't look at anything if you're sitting elsewhere

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TheCloudBoy OP t1_j9mg3ia wrote

So this is a very good question, it's clear (and good that) you're aware of different model guidance and the trends. Here's my rational for the Seacoast/SE NH when making the map, excuse the numbered list and lengthy thought process!

  1. I do use high-resolution guidance, sometimes called "convection-allowing" models. This naming draws ire from many mets given all models account for convection in one sense or another. Lower-res global models parameterize it whereas short-range guidance have the horizontal & vertical resolution to explicitly resolve convective processes. We won't get into hydrostatic v. non-hydrostatic solvers, but that's important too.
  2. The slight southerly trend from 18Z yesterday to 18Z today is certainly of interest. It's important to utilize both positive snow depth change (PSDC) & static or dynamic snow ratio data for this forecast. The current 18Z suite (at 10:1 static ratios) has 7-10" through all of southern NH, but the PSDC is barely 3" and closer to my map.
  3. Why this difference and my map much lower then? I've closely inspected soundings and it's clear that the above-freezing warm nose makes it to Concord for several hours, keeping precip in/south of there sleet. In addition, the snow growth anywhere south of Laconia is atrocious, with the strongest lift well below the dendritic growth zone (DGZ). So even if we stay barely below freezing above our heads, snowflakes grow poorly and may even be partially melted, aiding to lower accumulations at the ground when its not sleeting. The PSDC maps illustrate this beautifully.
  4. The general rule of thumb is for every inch of liquid, 3" of sleet adds up (3":1"). The average liquid expected south & east of Concord is about 0.70". Let's assume at minimum 30-40% of the precip tonight is sleet and the rest averages to an abysmal 7-8":1" snow-liquid ratio. At most, you're looking at 1-3" of sleet/wet snow slop!
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perfectbebop t1_j9me7op wrote

Looking at the options it provides (iOS) theres either preset weather services like Foreca/Apple Weather/AccuWeather etc or personal weather stations (Netatmo/Tempest/PWSweather). Unfortunately I'm guessing none of those would allow for a more custom data feed.

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