Per moving companies statistics, which is a good, non government indicator, Colorado had more people move out of state than in to the state: https://www.unitedvanlines.com/newsroom/movers-study-2022

Also, the article you shared validated that demographics have hit a wall and will continue to decline, thanks for sharing.

But the tax rate used to be a lot lower due to that. We raised the tax rate form 3% to 12% bc people wanted longer retirements. Also, infant mortality plays a big role in increased life expectancy but doesn’t effect retirement

Lots of issue at play but there aren’t a lot more boomers than younger generations. Their were more boomers than previous generations which allowed boomers parents to get a gift. Add immigration and population affects are a wash. One issue is wealthy hoarding money above the payroll income tax cap more so than in the past

> Had the fed not used up s.s. as if it were just another federal tax, it would've been fine, i guess

That has zero affect in solvency. The IOUs are legally obligated to be paid back. This is a fake issue pushed by republicans. The government will find a new buyer of the debt when it comes time for ss trust fund to sell it

The US isn't expected to grow any further in population so SS and similar funds have to deal with the disproportionate size of boomers and generations after them, but after that it won't be an issue without a significant demographic change

>Well, considering those "assets" are really just IOUs from the taxpayer, who is already on the hook if SS goes belly up, I am not sure this graph is really a good interpretation of reality. It isn't like they have a stock portfolio for this-- it is treasuries. The money has been spent already.

The trust fund will sell the bonds and someone else will buy them. Demand for us bonds is immense bc it is the exchange currency of the world.

> And look at when those assets were acquired. We just saw a huge bank fail because they were holding treasuries with low interest rates. With treasury rates around 4% or higher, we should probably discount some of that asset line.

The bank failed due to a run on deposits triggered by a concentrated customer base in ventures capital startups. Bonds only decrease in value if they are sold before maturity so the slow and predictable draw down of the trust fund is a non issue with regards to interest rate fluctuations

Ya, there is a huge upfront cost to building a rig (engineering hours alone are insane lol) Especially offshore rigs. Also, building a new rigs takes a long time, like several years, and these contractors want to churn out profits ASAP.

Also, most rigs are mobile. Once they are built, they can be moved to new wells. The ones that are not mobile are left there, and when new tech comes out to suck more oil out of a well, they are updated and reused.

they raised the age and the tax for boomers back in 1980. Since then, more income has gone to wealthy people over the payroll tax cap which has decreased the trust fund balance.

When social security was first created, the retirement age was later than the life expectancy. It was insurance against outliving your retirement savings, not intended as a primary retirement plan

Higher average income earners get relatively less back (double your salary and taxes paid doesn't double your benefits) so it shouldn't make the problem worse. Optionally, the cap could be removed to extend solvency while changing benefits to not increase for those earning over the current cap.

If none of this is to your satisfaction, an alternative of increasing social security taxes by ~3.4% would extend full solvency of the program to around the year 2100.

Also, who pays 60% taxes in the US? IIRC, the highest income percentiles tend to pay around 20-25% in effective federal income tax rate after accounting for deductions and other creative accounting. I doubt between social security taxes (capped to no longer have income taxes after $160k), state taxes etc, almost anybody pays nearly 60%. Removing the cap would make it so social security is no longer a regressive tax where higher earners pay a lower percentage of their income.

Agreed. My point is anything tied to an exponential factor will eat anything not defined against the same. I am no expert here but I'd think legislation which sets non population based caps or doesn't compensate for inflation will be a problem.

I know almost nothing about this field, is restarting and repurposing old rigs any better than building new ones? Intuition would say yes but like I said I have no idea

good job on the 3 second dates

Maybe if billionaires paid their fair share of 25%( or much much more )and not 0% to 3%, when we grow old we could buy our grandchildren useless junk they don't want. I thought old people would be pro old people expenditures.

It’s important to note that there has been a huge push in the oil&gas industry to repurpose old rigs because it’s cheaper than building new ones. I don’t know if this data takes that into account.

My main source is me. At work, a majority of the jobs we are getting are updating old rigs and starting up abandoned ones.

Here’s an article talking about an increase in rig utilization globally. https://www.rigzone.com/news/offshore_rigs_set_for_very_busy_year_in_2023-26-jan-2023-171875-article/?amp

Why don't we make the last day of work the day you die? That way we wouldn't even need SS. Why do the plebs even need rest and retirement? s/

I would like to see this modeled out for the next 50 years given current workforce trends

Why not 90?

They are 'IOUs' they same way a t-bill is an IOU.

sure, as it is a population model. The boomer bulge is entering its dearth slope not coincidentally at the same time it is peaking at retirement. The point is that it corrects. All on its own, But we should abolish the cap on FICA taxes, put the full retirement age back to 65, use a better CPI index, COLA the earnings threshold for taxation that was set back in 1984, and increase the minimum benefits. And medicare needs to be rolled into a comprehensive universal health insurance system.

I have been tracking my weight since I was born in 1997. I decided to plot it.

I used the journals from my school to get the dates and weights. I was also weighed as a baby and I have records of this. For plotting, I used matplotlib and the XKCD style option to get the hand-drawn vibe of the plot.

IIRC the plurality of US debt is held be social security, so the people whining about the debt are creating 2 problems out of nothing.

I've had teachers in grade school talkin' about this since like 2002: there's going to a be a lot of retirees collecting and a lot less kids paying in than ever. Boomers that paid ss their whole life don't feel like their payments should be reduced. Their kids don't feel like they should pay disproportionately more. It's going to be a massive conflict.

Had the fed not used up s.s. as if it were just another federal tax, it would've been fine, i guess

50% response rate, you must be marriage material. 25% is lucky.

That would just make the problem worse because it would increase liabilities. The wealthy don't need social security.

The top marginal tax rate is already nearly 60% between federal and state. Higher taxes are not the answer.

Almost anything reported in dollars is going to lookbe exponential because of inflation and population growth.