Recent comments in /f/dataisbeautiful

liortulip OP t1_jamy3hj wrote

Good morning everyone. The visualization above shows market odds from Kalshi (a prediction market) on possible outcomes for the ongoing supreme court case Biden v. Nebraska. SCOTUS is currently deciding whether or not to permit Biden’s student debt relief, which has been contested by several states.

The probabilities shown reflect the odds at which market participants are currently willing to enter a trade. For example, if the visualization shows that a particular outcome has 80%, it means that there are some traders willing to take 1:5 odds ($0.20 reward per $0.80 invested) that outcome will happen, and that there are are other traders willing to take 5:1 odds that the outcome will not happen (there’s no “house” in these prediction markets - they function like an exchange where participants match with each other). As these markets are public, the theory of the “wisdom of the crowds” is that more accurate predictors will be more confident and thus move the price towards the true probability.

I’d love to hear what you all think, and your feedback on the illustration. Also, I wanted to give enormous credit to my friend Osub - he’s the designer who made this.–Disclaimer: I am a prediction markets enthusiast and an engineer who works at Kalshi on these forecasts. If you have any technical questions about how these figures were computed, please feel free to ask.

Data

Kalshi markets' price history, accessible through their api

Washington Post

Tools

Figma, copy.ai

Edit: Apologies for the typo, Prelogar is not a supreme court justice - she is the Solicitor General.

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Designing_Data t1_jamaiq4 wrote

Let's try a week's worth of news?

Here is no news about Saturn and Jupiter (or whichever planet combo it was) being clearly visible at night for once in half a century? Or the Aurora Borealis visibility? Or about the pedophilia trials revolving around Maxwell and the leaked documents? Or about the government's that are banning Tiktok from their devices? Or about the gaslighting of the US and EU population on why we really have mass inflation? What about the controversies surrounding corrupt politicians and the war in Ukraine? What about the politics in Russia and the nearly ineffectual sanctions against them? What about the ever tightened relationships between Russia and China? What about Australian government doing fuck all for their civilians and how Greta should better speak out to their constant human-degrading behaviour they show across neighbouring nations and peoples? What about the EU laws focused on banning motorvehicles that use fossil fuel even though we do not have enough minerals for electric cars - or alternative means of personal transport vehicles? What about corporate en government greed fuelling the rage of people but they are constantly belittles by the national anti-terrorism instances who use PsyOps methodologies to divide and conquer what's left of our humanity?

Until then, this may look cool as a topic started but it is wildly inappropriate as so many stories are lost due to filters and aggregations we have no say in.

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