Yeah complaining about inaccurate forecasts is so widespread and almost always wrong. It’s almost always someone who didn’t pay attention to the details of the forecast or misheard/misunderstood/misremembered it, or heard a forecast for another place but assumed it applied to them etc.

Genetic testing. The viral genome is sequenced and edits between specimens are catalogued.

There are a shitload of mutations between most specimens. Many of these might be single amino acid flips which might not do anything at all. But the viral genome has certain core regions essential to its function. For instance, with Covid, one of these regions codes for the spike protein necessary for infecting host cells.

We can then count up the major core mutations and get an idea of how different one specimen is from another. And indeed, because this science has advanced so much, we can even make predictions about how certain mutations will affect the viral proteins, and how those changes might affect transmissibility and immune evasion.

People do say that about the weatherman - I hear it all the time. Meteorologists take time & explain how the pattern could shift but people don’t listen.

In NYC we were concerned about cats after a Lion and a few tigers at the Bronx Zoo caught covid. The zoo had been closed to the public but caretakers were coming to work as usual. This was a rough week; we’d already been hearing sirens nonstop (ambulances) and then it was like “oh come ON now cats too???”

https://newsroom.wcs.org/News-Releases/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/14084/Update-Bronx-Zoo-Tigers-and-Lions-Recovering-from-COVID-19.aspx

[removed]

[removed]

[removed]

[removed]

A common cold could refer to either rhinovirus or coronavirus that are commonly present during cold season.

But generally (for adults anyway), it’s the amount of fat stored in each fat cell that’s changing, and the number of cells doesn’t vary much, if at all.

[removed]

[removed]

[removed]

[removed]

The inside of blood vessels have epithelial cells and a really weird coating known as the glycocalyx.

There are things that damage the glycocalyx and epithelial cells and processes that work to repair them. Some of the compounds in smog are excellent at causing damage, and that increases risk.

Here's a reference for you.

[removed]

[removed]

Not really, China just had unexpected quarantines with no info on end dates and letting the public figure out how they were going to get supplies to keep alive for the duration.

Isn’t that sort of what China tried to do? Human nature makes it a really hard problem to solve out in the imperfect world.

I think there are several issues, it can be done but it would require massive amount of planning, which like you said would make it almost impossible.

If we look at the COVID response and past pandemics, its very sudden and catches people out and causes mass panic (everyone going out to buy toilet paper). As no one knows/knew how long the lock downs would be.

However, if we announced it beforehand, informing the public of the duration of the quarantine. Set up supply drop offs, re-assure the public that there won't be supply issues, account for basic contingencies, it could be done, but it would require an almost militaristic amount of planning and logistics.

[removed]

[removed]

[deleted]

[removed]

I know. It bothers me because it seems like it should be such an easy fix to keep food workers home but it turns out to be almost impossible.