So you're saying I should be bullish on a Halo VR game?

Because the other big player (Google) didn't care enough / see the value. Google could snap their fingers and have chat gpt if they wanted. Google invented the model that gpt uses.

They obviously mean in search, where they’re significantly behind, if not dead, in terms of market share.

>I think you may be underestimating the compute cost. It’s about $6M of compute (A100 servers) to train a GPT-3 level model from scratch. So with a billion dollars, that’s about 166 models.

I was actually overestimating the cost to train. I honestly don't see how these numbers don't further demonstrate my point. Even if it cost a whole billion ( that's a lot of experimental models ), that's still 10 times less than what they're paying.

>Considering experimentation, scaling upgrades, etc., that money will go quickly. Additionally, the cost to host the model to perform inference at scale is also very expensive. So it may be the case that the $10B investment isn’t all cash, but maybe partially paid in Azure compute credits. Considering they are already running on Azure.

I actually expect every last penny to go into the company. They definitely aren't buying anyone's shares ( other than maybe a partial amount of employee's vested shares ; this is not the bulk ). It's mostly for new shares created. But $10B for ~50% still gives you a pre-money valuation of ~10B. That's a lot.

They already are the exclusive provider of compute for GPT-3 through Azure. This is Microsoft buying part of the company.

Well maybe not corporates only but its the main revenue source for Microsoft and a field where MS has a real edge over other tech companies.
Traditionally MS revenue is to 78% from corporates / businesses.
B2C isn't their stronghold (e.g. just compare MS Office prices for business with the prices for consumer licenses).

right answer

It's easier for Microsoft to invest in or buy another company than create their own stuff from scratch.

Already a plugin for it

I think you may be underestimating the compute cost. It’s about $6M of compute (A100 servers) to train a GPT-3 level model from scratch. So with a billion dollars, that’s about 166 models. Considering experimentation, scaling upgrades, etc., that money will go quickly. Additionally, the cost to host the model to perform inference at scale is also very expensive. So it may be the case that the $10B investment isn’t all cash, but maybe partially paid in Azure compute credits. Considering they are already running on Azure.

There's two sides to it, the chat bot itself and the research and potential.

As far as the use of a chat bot this is going to be better utilized by Cortana as it stands. But there's no reason search or otherwise can't stand to gain.

The real gem of chatgpt is how popular it is and how much direct engagement it gets. Any machine learning has access to a lot of content that can be scraped from the internet. Its few that have a large audience testing it and asking questions.

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What do you mean by "beat Google"? Arguably Microsoft is already beating Google if you look at company valuation.

>Why were OpenAI the first to make a model as good as ChatGPT then?

That's a good question. OpenAI definitely is more open to allowing the public access to these models than other companies. While OpenAI isn't as open as some would like, they have been better than others. OpenAI might have pioneered some things but the problem is those aren't proprietary. They have published enough for others to replicate.

>It seems clear there is a significant talent and experience advantage in this.

If they can hold on to that talent. Not everyone there is gonna stick around. For eg. a lot of the GPT3 team went over to start Anthropic AI, which already has a competitor in beta.

>I should also mention that no company other than OpenAI has the same quantity of data on human interactions with large language models, thanks to the past 2 and a half years of the OpenAI API.

This is a good point. But is really better than the queries Microsoft has through Bing or Google through their search? Maybe, but still feels like little for 10B. Idk.

I think you're missing a key point of information--MicroSoft killed off Cortana in 2021.

Random investor: Cortana, give me the quarter profits . Cortana: Halo chorus start…. HaaaaaaaaAAAAAA, aaaaaaaaaAaaa, aaaaaaaaaaAaaaaAaaaa

Edit: Upvote if you hear the chorus in your mind

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I think that's an interesting idea even though I absolutely don't need to talk to it. It would just be nice if the AI had its own calender and would remind me of stuff I need to do that some client wrote in an email or something.

But then it would need to read my mail and companies don't like other companies reading their mail.

I could see Github Copilot getting a significant rehaul.

In terms of voice assistants, Alexa is miles behind everyone else actually.

Why were OpenAI the first to make a model as good as ChatGPT then? It seems clear there is a significant talent and experience advantage in this. I should also mention that no company other than OpenAI has the same quantity of data on human interactions with large language models, thanks to the past 2 and a half years of the OpenAI API.

I think you are on to something. MS has really stsrted leaning into their productivity suite and corporate offerings.

Microsoft Vivo is being rolled out and I think ChatGPT will be used as a personal assistant for employees.

For example, if you're an employee at a massive enterprise, and you need to find internal docs for (compensation, sick leave policy, literally anything) you can ask ChatGPT and it will give you an answer.

I imagine they'll be fine tuning different LLMs lile ChatGPT to fit into all of their productivity products. But corporate assistance seems to be a potential push.

They invest 10 billion USD at a 29 billion USD valuation so they control 34.5% of the voting rights which means blocking minority and hence certainly some clauses that direct competitors can't be ChatGPT clients without their approval.
The deal likely also comes with typical clauses such as "right of first refusal" so the company can't be sold to a competitor either without their consent.

Okay.

How about training a segmentation model? Since, you are to detect anything but hoardings/poster.