Recent comments in /f/IAmA

Annual-Mud-987 t1_iqwxnv1 wrote

Very interesting thanks! Does that mean that scientists are looking at other coronaviruses for the 'next pandemic' or are they looking at lots of different possible viruses? I guess it could be any of them.

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UniversityofBath OP t1_iqwvaqp wrote

I'm not really a fan of horror as a genre. The last film that I watched that you could even describe coming close to that category is "The Orphanage" directed by Guillermo del Toro. I enjoyed that one, but generally it's not my thing.

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UniversityofBath OP t1_iqwuywm wrote

It's a great question.
That we had a pandemic of a respiratory virus I think was predictable and predicted. In that sense we should have been better prepared.
The exact timing and type of pandemic, however, is harder to predict.

Probably the best analogy is to earthquakes. It is almost impossible to predict particular earthquakes on any useful timescale before they happen, but actually we can characterise how frequently earthquakes of particular size happen in the long run. So while we can't prepare for a particular event we can prepare for generalities. In Japan, for example, they have an annual disaster preparedness day precisely because they are aware that the risks of earthquakes (and other natural disasters) there is high. In the UK, our relatively lower risk means that it probably isn't worth while to undertake these preparations.

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UniversityofBath OP t1_iqwu555 wrote

Whilst each flap of a butterfly’s wings does change the air pressure around it, this fluctuation quickly dissipates and is incredibly small in comparison to the large-scale changes in air pressure which determine the weather. Within a few centimetres of a flapping butterfly the disturbance it causes will have been dissipated by the surrounding air molecules, making it difficult to imagine how the minute changes caused by butterfly’s wing flaps could be amplified fast enough to manifestly change the forecasted weather to the degree required to trigger or avert a tornado.

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UniversityofBath OP t1_iqwu0e2 wrote

Those are great questions. I'm afraid I will have to duck the first one because that isn't my area of expertise. I primarily work in developmental biology/pattern formation and epidemiology.
That said, there are lots of really interesting questions about stability and robustness of eco systems, which can be tackled using tools similar to the ones I employ.

In terms of Ian Malcolm, I'm pleased to think a mathematician was important enough to be one of the few people who should be afforded a sneak preview of Jurassic Park. I think they could have worked a little bit harder on his explanations of the mathematics of chaos in the film.
I think the butterfly effect is perhaps one of the most misunderstood "popular concepts" in all of science. It's an attempt to explain the fact that chaotic systems (like the weather) are typically extremely sensitive to their initial conditions, but I think it's been misappropriated to suggest we can calculate the probability of a hurricane arising from any flap of a butterfly's wings, which is not possible.

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Annual-Mud-987 t1_iqwsig6 wrote

Hi! You said your next book is about expecting the unexpected. Do you think the Covid pandemic was predictable? It sometimes feels so in the western world, but I know there have been other kinds of coronoviruses elsewhere in the world and things like Ebola as well.

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charlesd11 t1_iqwrx7l wrote

Hi David!

I know you worked briefly with maestro Muti for Attila at The Met, just wanted to know how it is working with him and if he somehow brough something new about Verdi to you and the orchestra.

Also, what are you most excited to play at the Mainly Mozart?

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CrassostreaVirginica t1_iqwrfuf wrote

Hello, and thanks for this AMA.

I had read a few years ago that there was an ongoing debate about how stable evolutionary change is. I.e. does it mostly occur at a constant rate (outside of special circumstances like human-caused selective breeding) or are species largely stable most of the time and undergo periods of more rapid change.

This may be too broad a question, but is there a consensus about which, if either, is more accurate?

Also, is there any sort of consensus view among mathematical biologists about any aspect of the Jurassic Park character Ian Malcolm?

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Dinostra t1_iqwnpo9 wrote

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SpuriousDiphthong t1_iqwkfj9 wrote

Thanks for your time and of course the wonderful collaboration of you and your colleagues in the pit. NYC is lucky to have you all.

To what degree is your work derived from your predecessors, and Met Orch traditions and conventions, and in what areas are you rethinking or bringing your own ideas about musicianship and performance? What's it like being a group leader in an institution that developed its unique character long before your arrival, and will continue to develop after your career ends?

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48ozs t1_iqwkfd4 wrote

Hi David.

What is your opinion on the modernization of directing in Opera? Do you prefer it, indifferent?

It is pretty strange seeing Rigoletto performed in the atmosphere of neon lights and rat pack Vegas.

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MainlyMozartSD OP t1_iqwhbo9 wrote

In terms of your second question, I have had such moments in the past but I rarely listen just for one moment. I can think of one such example though: when the horn motif in the last movement of Sibelius 5 gets going .....

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MainlyMozartSD OP t1_iqwgwfd wrote

Difficulty is always an interesting question, because people typically expect some kind of staggering intellectual or technical difficulty. Pieces of that sort include Berg's Chamber Concerto (where arguably playing the trio version of the Adagio with clarinet and piano, conductorless, was more difficult than playing the complete work), the "Seven Trumpets" from Messaien's Quartet for the End of Time, and Brett Dean's "Hamlet" which we played at the Met last season.

In the end, however, apparently simple pieces of sheer poetry are always more difficult -- Bach, Mozart, Schubert.

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XomokyH t1_iqwg9yr wrote

  1. What have been the most difficult pieces of your career? Both in terms of violin performance and in terms of ensemble cohesion. I’ve been listening to a lot of Charles Ives and my mind boggles at the group coordination required to nail the timing on those intricate pieces.

  2. Are there pieces that you listen to specifically for one moment? For example the key change in the 2nd movement of the Ravel string quartet is always magical for me. The Barber violin concerto has a few of those moments as well. I want to hear yours!

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MainlyMozartSD OP t1_iqwfrh9 wrote

One does indeed have to take care of the basics, to which I would add tone as well as pitch and rhythm. But the basics aren't enough; at the top professional level one takes those qualities for granted. The winner usually sounds like a winner, i.e. they're playing music (with brilliance, expression, emotion, etc.) and not just notes.

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