Until our machine learning models actually become artificial intelligences with a theory of mind, they will never be able to actually understand humans and replace psychologists/therapists.

Although I grant you that for basic things, they may be able to assist therapists with, for example, initial triage. But even taking a patient's history is a process that the human therapist will need to do themselves.

Anyone who tries to persuade you that machine learning will replace therapists is peddling nonsense.

Re: "I would like to see wearables":

...like when things like Google Glass were being tried out?

The main problem I have with wearables (which is kind of an extension of the same problem of having a computer-phone and yes I'm calling it that lol) is that there's no demarcation* between a conscious experience of the world apart from Microsoft's experience or Apple's experience or Facebook's experience or everyone else's experience of the world/environment and/or the person wearing the wearable, a.k.a. you. Your own perception or understanding of yourself becomes filtered through the experience of a device by spending so much time with it. People generally are what they do, being social and constructive** creatures, & like for any living thing that adapts to its circumstances/surroundings/creations(!!), self-concept/identity/perception/etc.*** is shaped by, and in turn, kind of resembles/mimics what's around it.

The technological role or function for wearables**** on the market currently is pretty different from what a cell phone is intended to do, which is to transmit. The interface and the perceived intimacy of such devices (being garments/accessories worn against the body continuously collecting biological data, especially eyewear being tech that's put against an open mucous membrane and worn around the most important organ in the body, according to bloodflow) might have strange psychological consequences for long-time users and actual literal exposure to tech would/could be disastrous for if/when malfunctions happen.

I'm also wondering about how beneficial "scrapping" a whole existing tech market is for the environment considering the yet-lacking recycling programs for tech waste, not to mention the legalities (and labor issues/concerns) of said recycling programs as they are.

*or maybe just a preemptive lament for solitude? something that comes from an authentic "me"-ness

**one of the only animals who work on long-term projects or develop trades/skills/arts/etc., lest we forget that birds build nests

***some may call it the "ego," but I think of it more in a consciousness-experience kind of way, like something embedded in a continuous perception or beingness

**** and the fact that they are not currently really relay devices or devices that send signals to other devices, presumably that other users/owners also have/use

TLDR: Consumer wearables (specifically /not/ medical items like pacemakers, because I just know one of y'all, especially if you read something for this long, might use that as a counterexample or something) might further already-existing issues of tech- or net-dependency (for information, for communication, for a sense of sociality.) Wearables would be a new development in trend-acceptability (what I'm saying is they break "boundaries," and not "barriers") for communication devices that I'm just not sure would be more beneficial than potentially harmful.

On "the future of cellphones":

Personally, I'd like for cell phones to decide whether they are computers or phones, but cell phones cannot decide, for they are cell phones. Any sort of design/manufacturing decision of this kind would be a huge break from current consumer trends* and the current financial buyability of smartphones. I like clicky buttons and reparability and long-term functionality as a consumer. What I'm saying is I personally will probably be using a "flip phone" in the future, lol.

As far as new phone designs go, I am really not a fan of the current anti-button trend that makes "phone" "rectangle of pokable light." A friend of mine and I once had a conversation where he (jokingly) said something like "I just know that cell phone manufacturers are holding out on us and every company could come out with its 'perfect phone' that would work forever with no problems." It's still pretty funny to think about. As far as new features go, I'm sure tech companies have their ideas. From newer "consumer" features in wearables/phones, I really think the data and its collection methods would be better suited for pharmaceutical purposes and not being hoarded by home/consumer electronic companies for the sake of making profit or selling "cool" gadgets.

*and such decisions/moves have been marketed as such, for example that recent Nokia "brick" cell phone.

I had one who I finally opened up to, I know I did because I was swearing left and right.

She said “please stop swearing or I’ll have to ask you to leave”

And how does that make you feel

Just seeing one convincing video would be nice, all the current ones (the tictac, gimbal etc) are easily shown up as camera artefacts and oddities. I haven't seen a single video yet that has convinced me of a UFO. I'd hope that if aliens really have travelled 100's of lightyears to get here, they would be able to see all of our suffering and would actually help us. Hell even a clandestine hint about a cure for cancer would help

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I'd like a watch that can show e-mails, take calls/texts, run basic apps like WhatsApp and a VOIP client and do voice assistant tasks, one that doesn't need to be tethered to an iphone or even need an iphone. I'm not a huge phone user, I mostly use a PC, so such a watch would be great for me. If it had a webinterface or a way to run all current android apps that need a full display that would be better too.

Looking further on into the future, I'd like a wristband phone, with a foldout flexible OLED display. Normally it would be an inch wide and would display basic info. But then you can slide out a 6" flexi display across your arm and use it for full on use. Or it has a built in projector (a good one, as current micro-projectors are useless).

But the tech for this is a while off yet considering processing, display, power and comm requirements. But I could see such wristbands replacing a large segment of phone users in 20 years if they are any good.

A company called Cicret were going to release a phone bracelet that projected onto your arm, but it was a total scam because we won't have the tech for it for years yet, Captain Disillusion did a great video on it (atm battery life would suck, the processing power means the interface will be barely functional, and the projection is so dim and distorted as to be unreadable). But in 20 years perhaps it'll be do-able.

As far as "real" phones, who knows. I guess the problem with a watch/wrist phone, is it's hard to disconnect them and use them as GPS

Maybe for some people, but for everyone?

Also, quality does not necessarily beat low-cost quantity.

The world is polluted with low-quality crap because of that reality. Expect the same here.

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That sucks I’m really sorry

Somebody sent us up the bomb.

Six months ago I would have predicted capabilities like those of ChatGPT4 showing up in about 15 years.

This is moving too fast.

No job is safe. Only a matter of time. And not much time.

> sex work is actual work unlike being a landlord

there's a subtle difference between fucking people and fucking people over.

I had a therapist tell me being molested in the 4th grade was my own fault, therapy today isnt 100% safe.

I want to believe youre right but even then thatll only last another 20/30 years? Kids born today will have a totally different relationship with tech than you and I do.

Stuff that requires varied physical work (not the same thing over and over like an assembly line) that also requires a bit of thought.

Such as a car mechanic. (Car mechanics may go away more due to cars becoming simpler laptop like devices you just plug in and unplug batteries/chips/sensors into, not because of AI)

but at the moment a mechanic for an ICE car. To replace this you'd need a humanoid robot that can maneuver all over a car, inside the engine bay, underneath etc. It'd need the physical power to undo bolts, but be delicate enough not to break plastics, glass etc.

It would need to parse questions and audio - a customer coming in saying "my car is knocking, can you find out why" - it would then need to be smart enough to know what is noise from the car, and what is noise from an adjacent car, or knocking from an adjecent worker hammering etc.

I can't see this happening for decades, at the moment we can barely build a humanoid robot that can pick up a package from a shelf, move it through a few rooms + doors, and put it in the back of a truck.

All of our current impressive AI relies on massive training data, such as alphastar being trained on billions of starcraft games, or GPT-4 being trained on billions of texts. How would you train a robot litterpicker or mechanic? Would you record every current car mechanic all day?

I can perhaps see jobs going through our world being made simpler. Such as 30 years ago computers were more complicated, a laptop cost $2000 and needed jumper settings, software bios config, etc. Now a chromebook costs $200 and a child can operate it.

So I can see things being simplified, instead of very complicated engines needing oxy sensors, thermostats, timing etc etc. A car would have a battery, motor, and sensor modules, on top of a basic chassis with modular suspension. And when your car fails it'll flag up on the computer, you take it to the garage and the robotic garage would just slot out a failed sensor module and slot in a new one.

But that wouldn't help in say building maintenance, running electric cables through a new build or anything like that. The jobs that'll stay will be the opposite to what people used to say - people used to say blue collar jobs will disappear and only artists and white collar "creatives" will be left, but it's now looking like the total opposite.

Any job requiring high manual dexterity, taking place in a large area or multiple locations, with a wide variety of tasks.

I'm sure somebody could develop an AI to do small renovations but developing a robot for the job seems a lot more unlikely.

Therapy is already being done by AI. You don’t seem very up to date in your own field. https://www.ai-therapy.com/authors/fjola-helgadottir/publication

Part of the reason therapy seems safe to me is that a lot of people would do a lot more (or any) therapy if it was cheaper. If AI could do decent therapy I'd still probably do the several months of therapy every few years with a real person, but with a a bunch of AI therapy in between.

Given that some therapy is done online these days, therapists are not safe.

"PC Therapist" from 1986 is literally one of the first chat bots. I think therapists will be the first to be replaced.

Fixing physics things will likely be one of the last things ai can do. Very non repetitive and requires fine motor skills. This could be fixing people, houses, machines, whatever

I get it but I still don’t think it’s 100% safe

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Anything that requires quite complicated manual dexterity seems safe for a while. Ie plumber, electrician, decorater etc