Recent comments in /f/Futurology

6thReplacementMonkey t1_jaun26f wrote

Cheaper overall, as in "big picture," including environmental, political, social, health, etc. As I said, and as you apparently missed.

> The cost to force renewables is astronomical

Yes, it is. And the cost of not doing so is even more astronomical.

> and its economically unviable.

Only if you don't look at the big picture. Which you don't.

1

VincentGrinn t1_jat8xlr wrote

oh geez when you include that stuff it just becomes obscenely cheaper, now days its already cheaper just in a direct cost standpoint to use renewables

even without long term damage fossil fuels currently account for 20% of all deaths world wide(both directly and indirectly)

1

FuturologyBot t1_jaslppo wrote

The following submission statement was provided by /u/Gari_305:


From the Article

>Scientists from the University of British Columbia and BC Cancer have developed a new AI that can accurately predict how long a cancer patient will live, just by reading a doctor’s notes.
>
>According to their findings, published this week in peer-reviewed journal JAMA Network Open, the AI model was able to forecast whether patients would survive another six months, 36 months or 60 months with more than 80 per cent accuracy.
>
>After following up on the patients at regular intervals after the initial test, the robot was correct in predicting when people had less than six months to live 86 per cent of the time, when patients would die within 36 months 84 per cent of the time, and when patients had less than 60 months to live 84 per cent of the time.


Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/11hbll7/ubc_scientists_create_new_ai_that_predicts_cancer/jasg6bh/

1

mrtouchybum t1_jaskykx wrote

Lol I live in a small town. It has fought wind and solar. Both were going to be like 10 miles away. They were offering incentives. Lower electrical bills and helping bring fiber internet to the area. Nope, cause it’s evil liberal stuff. People had signs that said keep your commie fans out of my backyard. I like the town because it’s quiet, but it’s backwards in so many ways. I don’t really see eye to eye with people in my area and have to stay quiet or I’ll get harassed.

1

Gari_305 OP t1_jasg6bh wrote

From the Article

>Scientists from the University of British Columbia and BC Cancer have developed a new AI that can accurately predict how long a cancer patient will live, just by reading a doctor’s notes.
>
>According to their findings, published this week in peer-reviewed journal JAMA Network Open, the AI model was able to forecast whether patients would survive another six months, 36 months or 60 months with more than 80 per cent accuracy.
>
>After following up on the patients at regular intervals after the initial test, the robot was correct in predicting when people had less than six months to live 86 per cent of the time, when patients would die within 36 months 84 per cent of the time, and when patients had less than 60 months to live 84 per cent of the time.

1

Scoobz1961 t1_jasah16 wrote

Everything you claimed about power engineering industry. Most importantly that its cheaper to go renewable and that the reason why we dont is because a conspiracy of presumably oil industry.

The cost to force renewables is astronomical and the reason why we dont go full renewable is because the power engineering industry is not even remotely ready and its economically unviable.

1

6thReplacementMonkey t1_jas5hs2 wrote

> Renewables wouldn’t have worked decades ago. Battery capacity was terrible, and wind and solar was extremely inefficient.

Yes they would have. It would have cost more to implement them without more R&D, but that wasn't the only choice. We could have invested heavily in R&D and gotten there much sooner. Despite the extra cost, it would still have been cheaper overall.

The thing people seem to not be getting from my posts is "overall." Big Picture. Total spend. Everything accounted for.

If you draw a circle around a piece of it, then yes, you can argue about costs. That's exactly why they do it.

1

Phssthp0kThePak t1_jas1abd wrote

Go further. Subsidizing putting batteries in cars, charged at night by natural gas, instead of on the grid to support solar, is completely stupid. If we are trying to avoid ecological catastrophe on a short timescale, how can such nonsensical, inefficient policies be not only tolerated, but even applauded?

3

DisasterousGiraffe OP t1_jaryg79 wrote

> country that has completely switched over to renewables

In predicting the future of renewable electricity generation it is very important to base our predictions on future renewable prices, not on historic prices, because renewables are getting much cheaper relative to other sources, such as coal, gas and nuclear. Existing installed generating capacity was all purchased at historic prices when renewables were more expensive.

Looking into the future we can see the US is switching to a fully renewable electricity grid. This transition is happening even with current renewable prices. The 2023 planned additions and retirements according to the EIA are

Planned 2023 Capacity New Retirement Change
Solar 29.1 GW 0 +29.1 GW
Batteries 9.4 GW 0 +9.4 GW
Wind 6.0 GW 0 +6.0 GW
Nuclear 2.2 GW 0 +2.2 GW
Natural Gas 7.5 GW 6.2 GW +1.3 GW
Coal 0 8.9 GW -8.9 GW

A massive increase in solar pv, wind and batteries, and a massive decrease in coal. Not much change in natural gas, but we know from Swanson's law the volume manufacture of solar pv will continue to bring down the price and lead to a spiral of increasing manufacturing capacity and reducing price. Similarly, wind turbines are getting cheaper but at a slower rate. These bite into the profitablility of natural gas electricity generation by making the gas plants into peaker plants, which are approximately twice as expensive per kWh as continuously operating plants. The gas peaker plants are then more expensive than, and have difficulty competing with, grid-connected batteries. Batteries are also increasing in volume and falling in price partly because the auto industry is going all-in with BEVs which already have 14% of the global market in 2022. BEV sales are increasing at a conservative estimate of 30% per year which means they also represent a second significant threat to the oil and gas industry by reducing gasoline consumption - gasoline being the major component of crude oil.

The wikipedia list of countries by renewable electricity generation needs updating from mostly historic 2016 numbers, but may give sources for its country-related renewable electricity data. The changes since 2016 might be similar to Australia which has significantly increased solar and wind generation in the last 10 years. (The chart of total energy consumption by Australian state shows a less optimistic picture of the transition from fossil fuels - the need to electrify more of the world's energy usage.)

3

Radulescu1999 t1_jarya84 wrote

Renewables wouldn’t have worked decades ago. Battery capacity was terrible, and wind and solar was extremely inefficient.

Though I agree that we still should have invested more into renewables (the US), an overall switch to renewables wouldn’t have been possible (as in 100%).

Though if we invested more into nuclear, hydropower, and geothermal (for specific areas), and invested in solar/wind (for their development/research), that would have been most ideal.

1

kaestiel t1_jarubpe wrote

Hahahahaha. You obviously have zero grasp on history and root causes of geopolitical conflict. Here's a hint, the US is guilty of more human atrocities, overthrowing of sovereign nations, financial/military support of terrorism and colonialism since WW2, than any other nation in the world. Prove me wrong. Plz. Before you claim your moral superiority over other nations, cleanup your own house. Again, don't forget to change your 'I support whatever I'm told to support' flag to Taiwan, another US proxy war is starting.

1

Scoobz1961 t1_jartdul wrote

Thats because nothing is there. You have no idea about how any of this work.

I am absolutely certain that you have a field where you are very knowledgeable and immediately see though BS. But in this case you are the BS in power engineering.

0