They're just making up timelines. I know there are some models that if you just drag the line forward, approach human level ability in a very niche task by 2030. There's a lot of niche tasks out there though.

A lot of these timelines also assume moores law will keep up pace and it's slated to die when transistors have the thinness of atoms by 2025.

How do I never see a post containing the phrase "AI" ever again?

I’m hiring developers to train AI to replace people right now.

The lens that needs to be given is that humans have always found their way to impact a human economy by leveraging the technology that exists. Sometimes the train starts moving fast but it won’t leave us behind — we’re the only reason it exists.

Article is oversimplified. But scientists have already altered the entropic lean of quantum particles, just not to this degree. We can watch it happen, but we can not do much with it, yet. As far as I’m aware. I’m all for this congregation of scientists for this endeavor though.

This is a quite appropriate thought experiment to all the AI doomsday panic that's being posted. I feel like it could use some refinement though, and the reason is because it feels very much like it's invoking the literary trope of the doppelganger, but I don't think it's explicit enough at it to be fully effective.

Eliciting the doppelganger trope would I think for most people, even those who aren't that familiar with much literature or film directly, make people think about how old this concept truly is. My own visual for the sci-fi doppelganger is the mechanical duplicate in Metropolis, which nicely fits this thread as it was part of a layered allegory that begins with the day-to-day workers moving through a soulless system to provide luxury for others. The machine could replace the worker, production would improve, and the worker would no longer be a ritual sacrifice to capitalism (but implicitly, where would he go?); instead the machine replaces the one person proposing a solution to the working class-vs-elite problem with an agent of the whole system's destruction. (Hopefully that's an abstract enough meta-summary that nobody will try to remember any of that when they eventually go see it -- which they will, because it's amazing.)

The point is that we have centuries of people freaking out over -- and making amazing literature about -- essentially the same root fear. AI is the new golem, the invading Body Snatcher, your Link's Shadow! But the hero does not fear! The hero stands in the corner and mashes, mashes B!

Aircraft mechanic, no robot could do my job, there's way too much subjective evaluation and non-standard systems.

Not to mention the FAA would never let a nonhuman approve an Aircraft for return to flight status.

AI can diagnose and fix problems on my PC and AI can help me with my online shopping + refund/replace anything I need.

That future is not 40 years from now - that future was yesterday.

I’m the co-founder of one of the popular VR tools in the AEC industry: Resolve (https://www.resolvebim.com). If you own a Quest 2 you can download it on the Quest store.

VR has been available as a tool for the AEC industry since the new wave of VR started about 10 years ago. Initially, and still today, VR is heavily used as a marketing tool to help architects, engineers and contractors win new business. It’s only recently that VR has started to make an impact on actually improving the design and construction process. Marketing is fine, but the potential for VR to reduce design issues and build more efficiently and safely is huge. We have some videos on our YouTube channel where you can hear direct from Resolve customers about how VR is impacting their construction projects: https://youtu.be/rf_-VDtQHFw

The main problem that was holding back VR (and AR, but AR has additional hardware issues) was primarily the fact that 3D cad models of complex construction projects are very large, geometrically dense, files and they couldn’t run on wireless VR headsets without spending dozens of hours of extra work to clean up and shrink down the models. Additionally, you would need to plug your headset into a beefy computer and then make sure IT was on hand to troubleshoot issues. This basically made it so that VR was too inconvenient to use at scale or frequently on a large project.

It’s only been in the last 18 months that this problem was solved. Resolve is the first (and still only) company that built a rendering engine that is capable of rendering these large CAD files natively on the Quest 2 without the need for extra work, an external computer or fancy streaming technology from a remote server. Over the last 18 months we’ve seen headset deployments across large projects ($300M+) dramatically increase from the old paradigm (2 to 3 headsets) now to over 30 to 50 headsets per project. We have some customers with over 500 headsets deployed.

Theres still a long road ahead for VR and AR in the AEC industry but the future is bright. Looking into the future I believe that VR will allow for complex simulations of not only construction of the building but also operations, maintenance, training, recruiting, community engagement, event planning, security drills, legal reviews, etc. VR should help us simulate the future, replay the past, and remotely operate the present.

The general trend to go from something human made to machine made is a massive reduction in cost. While the companies that do this for a while, eventually competition shows up and drives the cost down. Markets become flooded.

Gutenberg did this with books. His original goal was just to use the printing press to sell printed bibles at hand written prices. But once others figured out how the technology worked the price of books plummets. Once people start mass producing books it becomes very hard to keep them as expensive items.

The big profits don't come from high prices, the big profits come from an enormous volume of sales.

Difference. A landlord owns 3 rental properties. The way they maximize their income is by having the rent as high as it can possibly be. They don't have 4 properties or 5 properties. They want the absolute highest rent per property.

As where some sort of AI Architect/Engineer/Builder company could be going in a city and building not 3-5 units, but building 50,000 units, or in a place like Los Angeles, 2 million units. The goal isn't to become a landlord but get them all sold, even if at a modest profit of $20,000 per unit, that would be billions of dollars in profit.

Then figure they are going to do this in Orange County, and San Diego, and San Jose, and San Francisco, and Sydney, and Portland, and Vancouver, and Chicago, and Miami, and Austin, and Denver. Instead of trying to maximize profit off a few units, the goal will be to maximize profit by building enormous quantities of housing in city centers.

There is far more money in building millions of units, giving the real estate market total shock and awe by collapsing local prices. Sucking up all the renters as buyers and then expanding into other markets. Flood a market like Greater Los Angeles with 4 million units of housing and the price on all housing will crash.

The rush of buyers will have the all time deal of the century on a new condo in LA and then the existing home sellers will find themselves in an impossible to win situation.

Obviously, it has Electrolytes! What Solar Energy craves !!! 😜

Dangerous ;) But we've all probably been exposed to it by now.

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> It seems to come down to the fact that you think AI researchers are clowns and won’t be able to fix any of these extremely obvious problems in the near future.

No, I think they have forgotten the lessons of the last AI winter. That despite their best intentions to fix obvious problems, many of them will turn out to be intractable for decades.

Fundamentally what DNNs are is a very useful mechanism of optimization algorithm approximation over large domains. We know how that class of algorithms responds to exponential increases in computational power (and re, efficiency), more accurate approximations at a sub linear rate.

> For example, there are already methods to break the quadratic bottleneck of attention.

The paper itself says it's unclear if it works for larger datasets. But this group of techniques is fun because it's a trade off of accuracy for efficiency. Which yea, that's also an option. I'd even bet if you graphed the efficiency gain against the loss of accuracy across enough models and sizes it would match up.

> That’s two orders of magnitude in one paper, let alone 10 years.

Uh what now? Two doublings is not even half of one order of magnitude. Yes they may have compressed them by two orders of magnitude but having to decode them eats up most of those gains. Compression is not going to get enough gains on it's own, even if you get specialized hardware to remove a part of the decompression cost.

And left unanalyzed is how much of that comes from getting the entire model on a single device.

Fundamentally I think you are overlooking the fact that research into this topics has been making 2x, 4x gains all the time but a lot of those gains are being done in ways we can't repeat. We can't further compress already well compressed stuff for example. At some point soon (2-3 years) we are going to hit a wall where all we have is hardware gains.

I agree, but who knows what the ethics of the ASI in charge will hold.

Hopefully, each "commune" has authority over itself (of course, that has its own ethical quandaries) and will create its own "constitution," or ruleset, ethics, ethos: anti-tech; technophiles; theiest; libertarian, etc. Probably a combination of ideologies that work for the collective and a level of technological integration (implants or no implants; internet or no internet; gene editing or no gene editing) which everyone agrees upon.

If this were the case, I guess each commune would also have the choice to choose whether to access the greater communities or jack into the FPG (Free Power Grid).

Long answer to your musing, basically: each commune will choose what level of involvement and education. Some might want to jack into free power and play in virtual reality forever, their children will be taught by virtual assistants and the community and will probably have very low muscle tissue. Others will want very little contact—maybe just a taste of free power—and want to create a farming community in the desert.

Education will be based on what is intrinsically important to each society.

Exactly, I have yet to see Boston Dynamics robot deliver me something that can prove to me it can react with AI speed that a trained human can't do faster (climbing, etc)

Now, AI replacing certain menial jobs..yeah it may be right around the corner. McDonalds is pretty close to fully automated assembly line already. Soon they may only employ like 4 people per building. Maybe even one trained just to "be there"

mailman? maaaaybe a drone, that's about it. But a drone is not going to know wtf a black bin in the back yard by the gargage is from another and open it and put my package in, so maybe not.

Yes, this. I want to be attacked in rebellion by a poop robot maid not a fake dog.

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Just a normal AI dog that takes pics of you pooping and puts them on the internet. Just a sweet, loving, security risk when hackers get into its data and use it to break into your house. Just a lovely sweet AI dog that someone starts talking to your kids through bc they already hack baby monitors. I'd slow my roll on the AI dog takeover. Rovers out here vacuuming the floor already having enough problems.

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Yah, AI is already being used for jobs and advertised as making a quick side hustle of actual authors. Their future is UBI if copyright owners do not crack tf down now.

>There would be piles of rubbish on every street corner and much more crime as police forces are closed.

replace those jobs with robots.

>Humans need work for psychological well-being

speak for yourself. If I had everythiing I needed, without having to work for it, I'd be as happy as a pig in shit.

Saves me so much time applying makeup in the morning. Go out bare faced, BAM, face-seeking missile has made me up all pretty like.

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