Recent comments in /f/Futurology

xTopNotch t1_ja51yfp wrote

Reply to comment by drekmonger in AI is accelerating the loss of individuality in the same way that mass production and consumerism replaced craftsmanship and originality in the 20th century. But perhaps there’s a silver lining. by SpinCharm

We already have this today and it's called fan-fiction. But I'm sure once video diffusion models are on the level where you can get realtime edits that AI will extend to those areas as well.

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Cryptizard t1_ja51wb0 wrote

Reply to comment by boersc in So what should we do? by googoobah

No, lol, you are completely bullshitting here. It is extremely different, even compared to a few years ago. The advent of a transformer model literally changed everything. That's not to say that it is the only advancement, or even that it is ultimately the thing that will lead to AGI, but to claim that it is "not much different" is either uninformed or trolling.

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SpaceAngel2001 t1_ja51pir wrote

Reply to Opinion: Mining on the moon is no longer a loony idea, and Canada can capitalize on it by Gari_305

Mining off Earth only makes sense if you are smelting, manufacturing, and constructing assets off Earth. So the leap into a space economy is going to be dependent on a wide and complex multi pronged push by at least several nations working together. A lot of things will need to happen in a fairly short time line.

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the_6th_dimension t1_ja51mzl wrote

Reply to comment by bodydamage in So what should we do? by googoobah

Well I'm not sure that you could because you haven't, so the answer to my first two questions is "no".

But here, let's look at multiple sources and where I can find cost of living information and adjust income with that:

With income adjusted by COL (where possible)

|Source|Median Annual Income for Trade Workers | |:-|:-| |BLS|N/A| |Census Bureau|$56,464 (as of 2019, adjusted for cost of living using the CPI-U-RS) | |Glassdoor|N/A| |Payscale|$60,015 (as of February 2023, adjusted for cost of living using PayScale's Cost of Living Calculator)| |Economic Policy Institute|$70,000 (as of 2021, adjusted for cost of living using the CPI-U-RS) |

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Unadjusted income

|Source|Median Annual Income for Trade Workers | |:-|:-| |BLS|$44,840 (as of May 2020) | |Census Bureau|$45,555 (as of 2019) | |Glassdoor|$47,171 (as of February 2023) | |Payscale|$50,331 (as of February 2023) | |Economic Policy Institute|$54,000 (as of 2021) |

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I mean, what can I say? 50% of trade workers are estimated to make less than these numbers and that number only increases as salary increases, and even after adjusting for COL the vast majority of individuals are making <$100k with many making less than half that. It wouldn't be that way if it were easy.

Yes cost of living affects pay, but not nearly enough to support your claim. Union members also tend to make more, but most people aren't in unions or benefitting from them (though I wouldn't argue with changing that). These are again just some examples I could find quickly.

  • From BLS, the union membership rate for all occupations in the United States was 10.3% in 2021. This includes both trade and non-trade workers.
    • The BLS also provides data on union membership rates for specific occupations. For example, as of 2021, the union membership rate for construction and extraction occupations (which includes many trade workers) was 12.9%.
  • From EPI, the union membership rate for construction workers specifically was 13.5% in 2020. This is slightly higher than the overall union membership rate for all construction and extraction occupations reported by the BLS.
    • The EPI also reports that the union membership rate for production and transportation workers, which includes some trade workers, was 15.4% in 2020.

So even if we assume these numbers are off, I think it's fair to say that <20% of trade workers are unionized. This certainly helps them, but it doesn't apply to most people.

Have I been able to make solid enough arguments and give enough evidence from a variety of sources to change your mind? Maybe you happen to make $100k+ working in a trade and the other people you work with or know in the trade are also doing similarly well. If that's the case, it makes sense that you'd extrapolate that most people who do a similar kind of job (e.g., trade work) would probably have a similar outcome to yourself. It's just in this case you'd be wrong specifically because you and your immediate circle of reference are all outliers. Like, I'm not trying to sway you on some political point here, I'm just trying to present the actual numbers.

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UniversalMomentum t1_ja50noe wrote

Reply to So what should we do? by googoobah

Guy isn't what really changes the job market dramatically though it's the robotic engineering because you know you have to physically be able to do the job.

The Brain power part A lot of times isn't going to require a real AI it's just like a bunch of repetitive actions.

Like you don't need AI to like pick vegetables or pick up trash or do deliveries or mine Commodities you just need like endless physical labor.

It's all going to come in waves you know industry will adopt automation at different rates so you really don't have much to worry about anytime soon and by the time you do have something to worry about Society will probably already be adopting in ways that make your speculation pointless right now.

No way you can predict all the new jobs that are created by an emerging technology... I say there's no way I mean you won't even come close so we can't really speculate what the future job markets hold with enough certainty for it to be anything but misleading.

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boersc t1_ja50jqu wrote

Reply to comment by Cryptizard in So what should we do? by googoobah

AI currently really isn't that much different from 30-40 years ago. Not really. Back then, they also did mass training of ai and also got it horribly wrong, for reasons difficult to explain. Ai identifying tanks based on whether the sun is shining or not, was a prime example back then.

It hasn't progressed that much beyond that, when you actually study it. Boston dynamics probably are most advanced nowadays and even those robots aren't really 'smart'. They can't do what they are not trained to do. Same with all the chatboxes nowaday. They can only combine and extrapolate that they have been taught. There is no original thought.

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Enzo-chan t1_ja5053v wrote

Reply to comment by greatdrams23 in So what should we do? by googoobah

Yes, but this time we have computers many orders of magnitude more denser, faster and efficient than those in 60s-80s, I'm not sayin it'll happen in the next decade, it's just that claiming that sounds way more credible nowadays.

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checker280 t1_ja4zpl4 wrote

Reply to comment by PO0tyTng in So what should we do? by googoobah

CEO’s might never automate their jobs but unless you are at the top I doubt you will be safe.

Blue collar might be safe because there is very little standard from one scenario to the next. Even in something like a car, how the car is used/abused and how the car is maintained will add enough variance that will hinder AI from being efficient. In two homes with identical footprint/layout - how the rooms are used and wired/plumbed will make it impossible for AI to troubleshoot or fix unless it can see/predict everything.

White collar jobs are about to be impacted greatly and they will never see it coming. Disease diagnosis is becoming child’s play for AI who can identify the subtlest differences in comparison to tens of thousands of bodies before them.

I suspect the law and accounting will be no different as long as the AI can be fed enough data for them to compare.

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