Who the fuck are you to talk for this person lmao

Nah. According to the BLS the real answer is the same as ever; judge, doctor, lawyer, engineer, or specialized IT.

Trades don’t even come close in the median.

It's 250% more than previous perovskite. I think.

I know guys that completely refute what you said. So if your argument is based on your experience of the people you know, consider yourself refuted by me.

What held true in the past won’t necessarily hold true as the pace of change and disruption becomes faster and faster.

Do you mean globally? Because there's plenty of room

The following submission statement was provided by /u/Renu_021:

Research conducted at the University of Rochester has shown that perovskites can improve the energy efficiency of solar panels by up to 250% through the use of metal and dielectric substrates.

Perovskites are a family of materials that have a very promising crystalline structure as a replacement for silicon in solar cells and detectors due to their lower cost and similar efficiency.

Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/11cqgq9/the_ultimate_solar_panels_are_coming_perovskites/ja4fgo2/

What do you think is going to happen to wages in the trades when tons of young, competitive, able-bodied gym-bros (of all genders) get displaced from their tech jobs and start looking for ways to earn a living? The trades require varying levels of experience to gain competence, but none of them are rocket science. And the current average standards of professionalism in residential contracting are absolute dogshit and begging to be disrupted.

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Plumbers can make hundreds of thousands of dollars per year, they’ll be fine.

Those data are about as conclusive as you can get. The US gov carefully and methodically tracks this specific kind of data because the US gov values having an accurate read on various aspects of the economy with earnings being a huge part of that. You can check out more about the BLS here and here if you'd like.

The claims you are making are purely anecdotal. The data I'm referencing come from researchers who are trained in the proper research methods and statistics and are provided with the resources needed to collect huge amounts of information.

Of the thousands of people in these trades, you would expect that a small proportion of them do make $100,000+ and that's what you find. But it not the norm, nor is it even close to being common.

For example, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the median annual wage for electricians was $56,180 as of May 2020. This means that half of all electricians earned more than this amount, and half earned less.Assuming a normal distribution of electrician wages, an electrician earning $100,000 would be in the top 10-15% of all electricians in terms of income.

However, income is notoriously positively skewed meaning that this 10-15% number is actually likely to be much much lower. But even if it weren't, I'd say that 15 out of 100 people being able to earn $100,000+ in a trade job does not constitute it as being "easy".

Also:

>Most of those annual wages = sub $30/hr pay
>
>Union Millwrights, Electricians, Pipefitters etc are all well over $30/hr here and we’re south of the Mason Dixon line.
>
>If you go a few hours north those same trades pay $40-50+ per hour.

Assuming one works 2080 hours per year (i.e., 52 weeks * 40 hours/week), they'd make the following before taxes in a year while being paid at a rate of:

$20 - $41,600

$30 - $62,400

$40 - $83,200

$50 - $104,000

So no, I'll finish by reiterating that it is in fact not easy to make $100k+ whether you're in a trade job or not considering that the vast majority of people will never make this much. You and anyone else can check up on the data I used on bls.gov. Here's an example of all of the kinds of data they have for electricians: https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes472111.htm. They have thousands of different jobs that they track that you can examine for free just by searching for it.

Edit: fixed quotation mistake

Better materials are great and all… the main issue with solar is even if energy transfer was 100% efficient, there is a finite amount photons per square cm, so eventually it’s a surface area problem and never having enough of it.

You’re arguing against a straw man. I never said it’s always better to do everything yourself, only that you shouldn’t try to shame people by calling them luddites for taking pride in the skills they developed for themselves.

It will have its problems, but most likely will be more prosperous and less apocalyptic than we imagine.

Collapse: while there might be periods of difficulty, modern life won’t stop and we won’t be going back to the stone age or something.

Climate change: we’ll likely supplement our insufficient social and behavioral interventions with engineering ones once problems become too acute/expensive to ignore (i.e. soon).

Economy: recessions are a normal part of the business cycle. They happen every 10-20 years. We’ll survive, and the deeper the stock market falls, the better deals you will get coming in as a long term investor. Don’t let people talk you into never investing out of fear. You’ll regret it when you get older.

AI: It’s a historic revolution in tools and we’re in for the ride. Even if humanity were to end in favor of AI (Unlikely), AIs would basically be our descendants.

Bottom line: while you should care about these issues, you should not stress about them so much it detracts from living your everyday life.

Depending on where you live, a lot of markets already have a minority of jobs that are "good jobs". We have a very high cost of living right now. The majority of jobs in my city do not pay well enough for a person to afford their own 1 bedroom apartment at today's prices.

Like AI is not going to touch janitorial work. We need janitorial work as a society, allowing buildings to fall apart is not an option. However, janitorial work is not a well paying job. Its hardly a good career. People look down upon people who do it, even though it has to get done. We want janitors, we just don't want them living in our community.

I think we need to see a future where this technology can do to drastically reduce our cost of living. We need automated food systems, automated transportation, AI/Robo built urban housing. We need to leverage this technology to bring down expenses.

Japanese also has among the shortest gaps between the speaker finishing their sentence and the listener replying. There are so many early indicators within the sentence priming the user to expect a certain path of meaning ("This may be a little strange, but…" or "If" occurring at the beginning, or a series of noun modifiers before introducing the subject, etc.) that the last few words of a sentence are often a formality and sometimes omitted altogether. You’d be surprised how infrequently people are truly listening all the way to the end, they are usually thinking of their reply halfway through.

HA! It just read a sci-fi book.

>Possible collapse:

Humans have survived worse (WW2, The Great Depression, etc.). We are more vulnerable nowadays, as we are more interconnected and our food supply relies heavily on information and electricity. Basically, not worth worrying about. If it happens, you're screwed, but it probably won't happen (outside of a few countries here and there). It's like the possibility of an asteroid hitting. It's best not to think about it.

>Climate change

This will happen (is happening), and the only question is how bad it will be. My guess is that we will avoid the most catastrophic outcome (4+ degrees of warming), but there will still be degradation to the environment, reduced standard of living, and it will negatively impact outdoor activities like hiking, skiing, scuba diving, etc. This video might make you feel better:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxgMdjyw8uw

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>Economy:

The economy was far worse overall in the 1930s and 1970s, but there are still serious problems. The main problems now include government debt and an affordability crisis for housing. Demographics are also pointing to slower growth globally. Save as much money as you can, and diversify your investments (no more than 5% of your net worth in a single asset).

​

>AI :

I personally don't see super-human AI becoming available in the next 30 years, at least. But specialized AIs that can exceed human capabilities are here now (or they soon will be). At first, AI will mostly be a tool to replace tasks, not jobs. People will become more productive, and jobs will be less tedious. At some point, major job losses may occur, but I think you have at least 10 years to plan for this.

​

>everything seems to be worsening

There are a few worrying trends, and no shortage of problems, but the world is still a better place to live now than at almost any other time in human history. Would you rather worry about a robot taking your job or work in an unsafe factory 6 days a week? That would have been your likely career 100 years ago.

Climate change is getting worse, but air and water pollution are much smaller problems in the rich world than they were in the 1970s. Racism and poverty are also far less impactful than in the past. Don't ignore legitimate problems, but don't focus on despair. That's no way to live.

AlphaZero used no human games and defeats the world's best Go players. It is not true that all AI systems need labeled data to learn, and even with labeled data it isn't true that they can't learn to outperform humans on the dataset.

Article doesn't exactly explain 250% more than what? Definitely not more than currently available solar cells which are around 20% efficient. Because that would mean 50% for perovskite cells and that's of course not the case.

did you watch the movie? Cmon I think you missed the point

Honestly I feel like this is something you can’t plan for. Something is going to have to fix the mechanical aspect of this, so I’d say learning that would be a safe bet. They say they’re trying this to free up humans from unfulfilling tasks and mundane or dangerous jobs, but I don’t see it stopping at that. I see artists struggling, I see engineers struggling I see video game developers struggling. I’d say within 20 years top paying jobs in tech being minimum wage. Once AI can be spoken to without being overly specific that’s when we need to worry.

Read it again. You seem to have misread my post.

That was the best case scenario that you identified. I didn't go into the worst case—I ended it with an ellipse (...)—because worst case AI futures have been waxed, written and illustrated for decades.

No method of carbon capture will do more than mitigate what's coming.

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Fun fact, a while back I calculated how many trees we would require to stop INCREASING CO2 in the atmosphere - not reduce, just get to not increasing - and it was around 3 trillion trees.
This is 3000 billion.

Bu comparison, the pledges to plant trees are like, 3 billion in EU by 2030, or 2 billion trees in Canada.

Let's assume canada-size investment for every country in the world, including Luxembourg and Vatican, and we still only get to 390 billion, which is 2610 billion short. Based on the numbers the year I did that math, which was probably 2021, so 3 trillion probably wouldn't even be enough in the first place.

Ahhhhhh, i also remember the days when I feared automation and rode with the yang gang. Look, just because robots can replace a job doesn't mean those replaced will be out of one. Job loss is not as simple as a one to one, eventually new lines of work can be created or previous ones can expand due to the decreased demand for labor.

Also, there's no real way to predict which jobs will be lost and which ones won't. If I knew the answer to that, i would be shorting stocks instead of browning this site.