Things will likely be tough for a while but the potential for AI to solve (even trivialize) many problems is also high. We're developing clean energy sources along with other fixes to climate change. It may be a tough transition, but AI could bring us to a quality of life unimaginable before. Even now we live in much more comfort than people even 40 or 50 years ago.

Also society's not going to collapse. There will never be a power vacuum like that, the people pushing the collapse just have a fantasy of it happening because they don't like the way society is now.

By some definitions, your description of GAI also qualifies as being spiritual, esp. Maintaining and improving its own code.

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I think the real question is, once we automate enough tasks such that there won't be enough "good jobs" for people to build a career out of, are we going to support them so that they may thrive without the need for income generated by their work or will we treat them like we do anyone else who is no longer able to generate a profit?

You really only need to be worried about automation in one of those scenarios.

It’s like fusion. AI will be here in ten years. But the date just recedes away.

Shit changing doesn't require argument.

It's all about the principle. The details can be tweaked until it works for the targeted audience. I imagine it as follows:

Year 2: the laptop is broken

The dealer: it's user damage

Me: Then I don't pay

I lose the product, they lose 50% in potential revenue.

If they want they can fix it and I will continue the payments.

Right now warranties don't give me that. I pay 100% in advance and pray. Eventually everything expensive ends up as "user damage" with no way for me to prove it's not. In the case of lease it's the same thing - even if the device is broken if it's considered user damage I have to continue paying. I understand insurance solves that but it doesn't incentivize the producer to make lasting products and as importantly doesn't give the user control in the process.

Yeah.

A future where they mostly subsist on UBI... and where AGI—both in virtual spaces (programmers, designers, writers) and in physical spaces via Atlas style robotics (construction and other laborious jobs)—will more or less do everything.

Best case scenario: humans of the future don't have to work. They will choose to make art, or play video games, or work wood, or build houses themselves. Life will become a Pusedonymous collection of communes that are propped up by AI and the humans within them do what they want because that's what they want to do!

Worst case scenario...

Learning a new language takes a lot of effort and time, and not everyone has unlimited free time. by the way do you use gps when you want to go to a place you don't know or you follow maps or you ask people how to go to this place??

Feels like another subscription and I have too many subscriptions already. I guess it would depend on what the product was and how much the fee was.

Sabine is a slightly controversial recommendation. She's quite well known in the physics community for coming across as having very definite opinions about how science should be done and she presents these opinions in her videos in an extremely authoritative way. Because her audience is so broad, her opinions are sometimes taken as received wisdom when they are just opinions. When talking to other Phd's she tends to come off, if I'm generous, incredibly frank, if I'm less generous; rude and dismissive. Being a contrarian, within bounds, benefits her career so she has leaned into it. But the end result is something that is more entertaining then strictly educational. I would be more critical if she was lecturing college students like that. I understand she has to make money but I wish it didn't come at the cost of education.

You can pretty easily make 6 figures+ in the trades and if you work for a large company you can grow and move up.

What I meant was I feel like most of those type of jobs don't have much room for financial growth unless you start a business or something.

Well, money gives you security so you're not dumb for wanting to focus on it but part of that is propaganda. If you want happiness get a job that gives you enough to provide for your needs and look elsewhere for the emotional/intellectual security. Focus on your community? Raise a family? Teach yourself useful things? Get a hobby? The best chance you have of making it through whatevers coming is by having a strong sense of connection to a community (if available to you, its not always) and by having the emotional resiliency to not crack under changes or not getting your way. No one knows whats coming. If you put all your eggs in the cash basket eventually you will crack.

I would prefer that scenario too but they already know there is not enough people in that segment to bring back the old quality. They simply adapted to the changes of the system so we need a new business model to lure them into making it while also giving us a tool to quit the scheme if the promise is not met.

I would pay more for a better product that should last longer, but I wouldn't pay it as a yearly fee.

I agree problems of bias and privacy are real and important, but your claim about what anyone in ML believes just isn't true, and the article goes in to some depth about it. Experts in machine learning collectovely give a 50% probability by 2061 of AGI with huge differences in their individual estimates. Almost all of them say it will happen in the next 75 years.

If experts were saying there was a 90% chance an asteroid would hit the earth in the next 75 years, would you claim we shouldn't start working on a solution now?

if the item is the only blue item then it is unique in that sense, the ability for many manufacturers doing distinctive or one manufacture making many distintive objets doesn't make them less so

also if the distinctive element is chosen by or made to fit the one customer desire or needs its tailored, a company capable of producing efficciently more tailored products faster doesn't make each product not tailored

just making an example up, i.e. an artisan that produce three diferent products for three customers in 3 months without using any machine but he may be able to produce 3 different products for 3 customers in a month with the help of machines, still 3 distinctive products, still done for three diferent customers except faster

unless we are talking that there is real value in possible flaws created by the lack of precision of doing something manual vs machined

imho the confusion steems from the use of "unique", unique doesn't necesarily need to mean better, it just mean the only one with a particular feature or distinctive element, if a customer prefer that over products mass made to be exactly the same is a choice

the real "uniqueness" is something artificialy added to promote desirability and increase value, we had diamonds sold as expensive rarities, of course they aren't, and used to be that the most perfect the rock the most valuable, now we can manufacture better quality diamonds than nature, suddenly natural diamonds are being advertised as "better" for being natural with their "unique natural flaws"

however tailored add value, it can mean something done to one's specs or needs, anyone are going to chose always something that works for them based on their needs or personal choice if they can aford it than something mass manufactured that works ok for most but will never be able to fully meet every individual needs

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Two-three million years ago, we remapped an entire part of the left frontal lobe to handle language. I think that part of the brain is going to continue to seek language in one way or another.

We all know it's wrong, we all know things need to change but we don't care to put the effort in so it's cool. Ffs selfishness, greed, and apathy is why we're in this position in the first place.

Organize, strike, demand change for and in ourselves and our systems of government.

The current attitude concerning AI is startlingly naive. People seem under the impression that somehow the people making AI will just built in "benevolence to human life" without a clear reason for "why" that will happen. It's this attitude that scares me and others and go screaming "SKYNET IS COMING".

My biggest concern with AI is that people press forward on this exciting bew tech and don't put enough resources into AI Alingment to ensure that the AI doesn't one day start doing something bad.

I'm scared, One day you wake up, go to work and your phone starts heating up and batteries start exploding. You turn on the news and hear uf others are facing this issue just in time for the new broadcasts to start going out. The reason all this is happening is the AI is connecting itself to any devices it can get at and useing them for extra processing for whatever it's trying to solve and blindly overclocking devices to get it. The results is large swaths of the internet wiped put and rendered unusable until a solution is found (and there might never be one since the internet is down and at most a handful of places with the processing power aren't already baking like an oven because taken over).

That might be it if we're very very very lucky or maybe the AI starts making a nanobot swarm and decides to turn any material it can into processing or ram or whatever to solve that issue and we're all just waiting for the nanite cloude to kill us all.

The big issue is that people are making AI blindly, they're thinking "hey can i make this neat thing" rather than "should i". Like chatGPT and AI art alone could put a ton of people out of work forever now they exist and are out and people seem completely okay with that with little to no mitigation.

Singularity preppers are faced with an impossible challenge when it comes to figuring out when it will happen and what that means for all of us.

I don't use "preppers" as a negative - it's pretty much the same task as a doomsday prepper.

1. Figure out when the big change happens
2. Pre-guess and prep for surviving it as well as you can

I don't truly think we can get down to brass tacks on what a post Singularity world looks like. Yes, that's just my opinion man... but yeah it's a bit of tilting at windmills IMO.