This dude references Netflix recommendation system, Amazon recommendations, and Facebook for “what we think true AI is”.

That is so far removed from what many are discussing right now. He doesn’t touch on LLMs at all in that interview. He talks about inference and thinking, and dismisses AI’s capabilities because “all it is in inference”.

It’s a common pushback: “the AI doesn’t actually understand anything.” And my response is, “..so?”

If it gives the illusion of thinking. If it can pass the Turing test to most of the population. If it can eventually get integrated with real-fine data , images, video, and sound — does it honestly matter if it’s “truly thinking as a human does”? Hell, do we even know how HUMANS think?

is there such thing?

if there is individual isn't mass produced, we have a word for that, "bespoke"

the fact that producing bespoke or even low quantity may became far easier to produce hence able to compete in affordability with mass produced doesn't mean that the objet is "mass produced", it still retain its individuality

I can imagine a future where if the price of manufacturing bespoke thanks to automation goes down automation may allow for local cottage industries serving customers locally

also producing parts for big brands , the brand only dealing with the brand marketing to reach and provide clients, ensure clients request are meet to each particular spec and request as well as as ensuring the QC of the final items produced by the cottages are meet and provide their asociated cottage industries with primary resources

that could help eliminate many of todays far off transport of goods because production being local, allow for manufacturing as needed when needed helping to eliminate overproduction allow for manufacturing to client spec so one person TV, mobile phone or fridge may have different specs or looks than others depending on client request and also may bring local manufacturing comunities

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Crazy, because that’s what we’re doing right now as we speak.

Height of hubris we think this stuff debatable

It's not worth debating their short-sightedness. They want to build the shiny purely for the bragging rights, even if it ends up killing everybody.

Ai is going to replace art, literature, and literacy the same way mass production and consumerism destroyed craftsmanship and originality... I digress it probably won't be for the worst considering we're becoming a hive mind civilization. Just a bunch of drones proclaiming originality

On the surface it seems like a rent to own but the big difference is that the user is in control and rewards the company for fulfilling its promise. Warranties require you to prove that it's not a user damage while here the company needs to prove the product is still functional. It's warranties reversed with payments in the hand of the user not the company. These are not the same products sold via different model but rather a forgotten class on its own. Products with no planned obsolescence.

On the other hand companies regain their beefiest market from 10 years ago - the most reliable and most expensive machines which were rebranded into consumer goods with planned obsolescence and sold at a fraction of their prices back then.

Same happened to cars in the 90s , same happened to laptops in the post 2010s.

I think AR has a stronger value proposition for planning.

Idea one is basically just a “rent to own” type model. The net cost would need to be much more expensive than the cost without using the paying given the amount of additional cost added by the model (more people replacing, more staff, more complicated distribution model).

So if you think someone would pay $300 for a backpack that fits the rent to own model versus $200 without, then perhaps it’s not a horrible idea.

Note that this isn’t much different from a standard warranty service that you can add to most purchases.

in the us we have been there for a long long time.

almost 80% of american do quite well only knowing english.

while learning an additional language can be quite advantageous, there isn't a strong need to know anything other than english.

Surely the "someone" is the prompter, who has the intentionality and who directs the process with the content of their prompt, and judges the results, much like any other creative process.

Thank would make the AI art engine a tool, just like a 3D rendering engine is a tool.

Or even more like a photographer who presses a button, produces 100 burst photos and picks the one which conveys his taste and message the best.

Much like a prompter they did not compose the sunset, but they know what they like, and wanted to present it to others.

Machine learning is a specific type of narrow AI- meaning it’s task is simple enough to master because it has one task. It’s not the same as general AI, but it absolutely is AI.

In terms of the "I don't speak the language and need to get where I'm going/eat/not die" we're pretty much there. In terms of the scifi "I can carry on a totally normal conversation with someone because of this fancy schmancy universal translator", that will likely never exist. Basic sentence structure means that you're always going to be a full sentence behind and it would make most social interactions pretty irritating.

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I'm saying that a robot will always fail in a translation where cultural context is needed and only a professional translator such as my friends that do this job will be able to bridge that gap.

For example "Where's the Craic?" First off a robot would hear this expression as "Where's the crack?" because the programing is likely based on US English and not Irish English. Next if this was a court of law, the Irish speaker would be getting hauled off to jail for trying to buy drugs!

These translation robots will never be able to translate yob talkers to American English and anyone that down voted my last post are a bunch of slags.

.....yes the nanobot swarm graygooing the cities and people is admittedly interested but I'D STILL RATHER WE NEVER MADE IT AND DODGED THE BULLET WHEN WE HAD THE CHANCE

A fundamental computer science principle concerning basic algorithms "you should always expect the worst case scenario" is so under considered in these kinds of discussions that I'm fully expecting us to be doomed.

HOW THE HELL DO YOU COME TO THE CONCLUSION WHEN THE REASON WE MADE THE ROCKETS AND NUKES WAS AS WEAPONS FIRST. WE LITERALLY WANTED TO USE THEM TO KILL WELL BEFORE WE THOUGHT ABOUT ANYTHING ELSE

Not to mention AI is so much worse than any of those largely because the nukes and rockets don't unexpectedly turn on you one day and begin processes of destruction no one properly considered because PEOPLE ASSUME AGI WILL RANDOMLY BE BENEVOLENT

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Being fearful about artificial general intelligence right now is akin to being afraid of overpopulation...on Mars. Anyone who has worked in machine learning research knows just how far we are from such a thing. It is not an exaggeration to say that neural networks simply are not capable of being the technology behind a supposed general intelligence. These ridiculous claims need to stop, especially because there are very real problems in privacy and bias that we do need to focus on.

Deaths from disasters are way way way down from a historical perspective. It's an engineering problem that we've mostly solved since 1900. Forbes

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2019/11/15/no-hurricanes-are-not-bigger-stronger-and-more-dangerous/?sh=76451d034d9e

The actual changes in natural disasters seem to be theoretical and small. 2010-2020 had the least category 3 or higher hurricanes on record.

Also look at the chart here.

chart of intensity

Yes but even a terrible example of AGI has made extinct many species and irreversibly changed the planet without the one track optimization inherent in even the simplest AI.

When your argument is "We haven't made one and don't know how to make yet" doesn't inspire comfort as it means we absolutely can stumble into it and then everyone's phone start heating up as they're used fkr processing and WAY scarier things start happening after that

Interestingly, I had a *very* short-lived blog in 2014 and I made a post about the value of information approaching zero due to hyperstimulation of communication. I wrote:

>It is because of this that we see the value of information itself
approaching zero. Wait, don’t react just yet! Information still holds
its original value, however, due to its accessibility and in the coming
case of hyperaccessibility you practically don’t even have to pursue it,
it is given to you. That is the role of all these media outlets. The
greatest value add of the future rests in packaging, and disseminating
information, not in the creation of the information.

And what you wrote reminded me of this, and that we're going to see what happened with communication/social media happen to art media. Essentially a spiral of simulacra and simulation and a degree of abandonment of individuality.

When a new technology comes along, the legacy industries that fail to adapt never hold on for long. The demand for traditional construction will plummet. Even if these folks can hold in a few marketplaces, elsewhere will have his huge advantage.

People also seem to think that this will just allow people to do the same type of work that the legacy industries used to do, and charge the same exact price, just keep more profit. That might happen, at first, but once several firms start doing this the prices will eventually crash.

I always bring this up. When Gutenberg invented the printing press in Europe, his original plan was to mass produce bibles and sell them at hand written prices (which were roughly 3 years wages for a clerk per copy). However, once the technology was revealed, book prices crashed and the business model went from producing high dollar items to high volume.

If this technology comes around like how I think it will, where the AI Architects can do design work, engineering work, and building the components in a factory. It doesn't matter what the legacy builders think, they will not be the ones getting the projects. It will be outside players.

I wish AI could read this entire article for me and I hope this comment is long enough to not get deleted, long gone are the days of a short sharp comment.

I agree with you on the construction industry being resistant to change. Namely that it puts an added cost on any project. Unless an innovator came into the market and totally started disrupting the proposal game with their technology, I assume there will be many who will try to maintain the status quo. Some other people mentioned AR and I think maybe that would be more well utilized than VR in most situations, I had forgotten about AR

If I had to give an estimate.. I’ll say 10-15 years max